I'm kind of amazed that the Bitcoin price wasn't affected more given this event as well as the larger macro events with the stock markets, Fed and inflation.
Though an earlier bubble could be kicked off when ethereum cuts it's supply by 90%.
Why do you say “over”? I see BTC reaching $20k this summer and then falling to <$10k as miners fold.
It most likely won't hit $60k this year, but there is a new bubble like clockwork every 4 years. And like I said, another bubble could be kicked off earlier when the ethereum emission drops 90%. That could drag bitcoin up a bit and trigger an early start to the next bubble.
Oh man. I'll have fun poking you next year about how embarrassingly wrong you were.
As for timelines - that's anybody's guess.
Which were ultimately based on what exactly? See, TA in this space is the demarcation of those who know exactly nothing, but feel the need to contribute their misinformed opinion: short of being a whale who can make the market move (Bearwhale) I doubt you really have anything of substance to base your opinion.
And even then it's literally impossible to call a high, I've been in this for over 10 years and the 'price discovery' mechanism is really just not there. And most of the innovative stuff happens during times when the price is low.
Consider two things: Mining/Hashing power is at ATH, and we just 2x the amount of nations who have adopted its a national currency--with more expressing interest and are meeting with the President of El Salvador as we speak.
And yet we are sub 30k... again, I think no one knows anything about what the price will do, but that doesn't stop people for relying on conjecture to explain x, y, z event in this space.
Tether was a joke, and Luna was a scam... what this has to do with BTC is entirely lost on anyone with any semblance of knowledge: they dumped BTC, sure, but that is like conflating what Pellaton's stock price drop means for Apple's long term viability.
What are the fundamentals?
I know you don't have any such thing, just a "hunch" that you believe is authoritative.
This is definitely a proving ground and only those mining operations with the most resilient strategies will survive.
Many will continue to thrive.
The future outlook on the crypto markets enters a new era towards the end of this year.
Fidelity is introducing cryptocurrency investment services to all of its 401K investors, every company 401k, across the $2.4 trillion in 401(k) assets they represent (in 2020, or more than a third of the market at the time).
They will allow individuals to allocate up to 20% of their portfolio to cryptocurrency, for those who participate.
The same amount of Bitcoin will be mined no matter what.
These past years the Bitcoin ASICs have been tremendously profitable, and as a result the demand for the hardware goes up, leading to huge profits for the hardware makers. These past few months have seen a drop in Bitcoin, which drops the profit for miners, but as it is still above electricity prices, only results in cheaper hardware.
If Bitcoin drops below the electricity line, you will see miners all over the world start to turn off their devices. And once that happens, block time will rise, and that will start making the entire network less trusting. This will cause a spike of people selling their coins, and with less blocks this means a packed exit. With the packed exit, you would think this would incentivize mining as transaction fees go way up, but those fees come directly from the value of the coin, so once this starts the value of the coin is going to drop heavily.
With mining profitability dropping the further this goes, the longer block times, the more the price of Bitcoin goes down. If Bitcoin goes below 10k quick enough, it won't ever see another difficulty adjustment, and the entire chain dies. The developers might chose to hard-fork and change the difficulty changes algorithm, but as we've seen with Bitcoin Cash, these changes are political and don't tend to end well.
It's 6*24*7*2 = 2016 blocks, the number of 10 min intervals in 2 weeks.
If miners and shutting down during that time I'd expect the time between blocks to increase.
As the bitcoin price drops , they will have more margin calls and new coins are not that profitable. You can expect lot of mining sales to happen and orders get fullfilled as selling the equipment becomes more attractive.
Some of the smaller/more leveraged ones will definitely fail at long term prices of say 20k or less .
with bitcoin hovering ~$30K, still seems like there's air in the bubble. a 50% drop (from $60K) is pretty normal for bitcoin. It could drop a lot more without shaking the confidence of the hodlers
Am I using the word bubble wrong? Another responded in the same way.
I mean it's now definitely a bear market, and going down, not up.
I'm definitely not sold on Bitcoin, but it tracks along with tech stocks for some reason.
Digital gold my butt.