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This Google Trend graph shows an increase popularity. The increase has been fairly linear since 2014 but there were notable spikes in late 2021 and early 2022

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%...

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I assumed this discussion was about the package manager and not the OS

Agreed. Nix always means Nix Package Manager unless NixOS is specified. Its hard to distinguish `Nix` from `Nix package manager` in google trends though, so the "NixOS" trendline might be the best proxy for popularity of the entire ecosystem.

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