Hacker News Reader

Comment by wrp | Hacker News Reader

> People didn't think the invasion would take place because it's a bad idea for the Russians.

Just before the invasion, French military intelligence told Macron that Russia wouldn't invade, because Russian military capabilities were not sufficient.

View on HN

Current accepted wisdom is that Putin decided to invade because the FSB told him it would be a cakewalk. I'm really surprised that no one in the media has drawn a parallel to the intelligence failure leading to the US invasion of Iraq, when the CIA told Bush it would be a "slam dunk" to find WMDs there. It seems the CIA and FSB have a similar problem with groupthink.

Not a fan of the CIA, but, in the Iraq case, the push for the invasion came from some elements in the White House (you know who), they have already decided that Iraq would be invaded and were searching for a reason. In fact, the CIA didn't lie to the White House.

"The report is rife with what now are obvious red flags that the Bush White House oversold the case for war. It asserts that Iraq had an active chemical weapons program at one point, though it admits that the CIA had found no evidence of the program’s continuation."

From:

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/03/cia-iraq-bush-w...

There's a rumour going around in March that the FSB had an assignment (for years now) to bribe the Ukranian military , which of course the FSB officers reported they did while pocketing the money ("they're giving me cash in preparation a war that'll never happen, and they don't expect a receipt? Don't mind if I do!"). So it's possible Putin/other departments thought the Ukranian military had been pacified. The second part of the rumour is that the FSB officers panicked when they realized war was really going to happen, so they leaked the plans to the CIA in hopes of getting Putin to back down.

Discussion at the time (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30796339). The article posted may have been a hoax.

It's hilarious and terrifying that Putin had a less accurate understanding of the capabilities of the Russian military than most world leaders due to the insanely corrupt and fear-based society he has created.

Putin mistake was not in his understanding of the capabilities of the Russian military, but in the reaction to expect to the invasion from the Ukraine and NATO leaders.

Typical military intelligence incompetence.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com