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Comment by ohgodplsno | Hacker News Reader

Also, his collateral for the buyout is Tesla stock, which took a 20% dip. If people believed he would truly buy at $54, they would let the deal go through and make bank. The fact that they are still selling down to $34 means that everyone is seeing through Elon's bullshit.

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Or, alternatively, Twitter is a shit show behind the scenes and Musk is seeing red flags in diligence.

There isn't formal due diligence, he's already made the offer. He doesn't (legally) have access to any information that he didn't have access to weeks ago.

Of course there is formal due diligence. He basically gave them a term sheet and now they've opened their books. That's why he can walk away and pay $1 billion if he doesn't like what he sees.

What due diligence occurs when buying a public company? We already have access to the company’s financial filings.

So you are saying TWTR reported fraudulent financials?

That isn’t how acquisitions works. What Elon and Twitter have done is effectively sign an LOI. Now they do actual diligence to close the deal, or walk away and pay the breakup fee.

So what is the evidence in support of that hypothesis?

The pattern of behavior by Elon seems pretty strong support for the alternative.

The only support I see for this position is the assumption that musk is smarter than everyone else.

In support of what hypothesis? Musk is in diligence. To walk away without any cause he would have to pay $1,000,000,000. He doesn’t have to say why he’s decided to walk away, but he has a billion reasons not to walk without cause.

Twitter’s financials and business strategy are shit show in front of the scenes.

> his collateral for the buyout is Tesla stock

That may have been part of the original plan, but:

"Elon Musk is in talks to raise enough equity and preferred financing for his proposed buyout of Twitter to eliminate the need for any margin loan linked to his Tesla shares, according to people with knowledge of the matter. "[0]

[0] https://fortune.com/2022/05/12/elon-musk-avoid-tesla-margin-...

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