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Comment by quinndupont | Hacker News Reader

Since when does a coffee shop have a 10% success rate? According to a large study by the Speciality Coffee Association of America, independent coffee shops in the US have a 90% success rate. Perhaps the author mistakenly assumed coffee shops have the same market dynamics as a restaurant, but coffee is low-staff, low-overhead, and high-profit. So long as people are walking in the door, you'll do okay.

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That statistic is absurd, and highly suspect coming from the "Specialty Coffee Association of America". I have run a coffeeshop and restaurant both, and can attest to the high attrition rate in coffeeshop turnover. I'd be surprised if even more than 40% of coffeeshops are still open 3 years after establishment.

I'd be willing to be the "SCAA"'s numbers are something like "Still open 3 months after founding".

As a coffee blogger in Kansas City (kcperky.com) I can attest to coffee shops being a hazardous business to be in. For every two shops that open, I expect one of them will close in 6-18 months.

The only café's I see around the bay area that are Speciality Coffee Association of America members are those that are long-established and shockingly up-scale.

Does this study apply to newly founded coffee shops, or just the failure of existing ones? The analogy in the article is more toward newly founded businesses. Citation?

I can't recall the details of the study, and while the methodology or scope of the study are subject to critique, it is one of those, you know, statistical studies. Not anecdotal evidence, and not "I've been in the business for so long" evidence.

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