My go-to heuristic is three point estimation, basically a weighted average of the best, worst, and average case [0].
(Best + Worst + 4 * Average) / 6
One nice property is that it imposes a distribution that adjusts for longer tailed risks.
(Best + Worst + 4 * Average) / 6
One nice property is that it imposes a distribution that adjusts for longer tailed risks.
At the same time, there are occasions where it can be useful to collapse a distribution for some types of reports, or for quickly looking across estimates.