The Turkish drone that changed the nature of warfare
newyorker.com
newyorker.com
It seems to me there is still a lot of opportunity in the low end with even smaller and cheaper UAVs with a few kilograms of payload. There have already been numerous instances of COTS UAVs being jerry-rigged to drop mortar shells, and it seems to work pretty well in a lot of scenarios. Particularly for smaller governments dealing with relatively unsophisticated insurgencies.
I'm actually surprised we've got man-portable loitering munitions like the switchblade in use before the widespread adoption of guided mortar rounds. I'd have to imagine it's more cost effective (in terms of kilograms of high explosive on target per dollar) to make some GPS-guided or laser-guided mortars, and either use ground troops or a small UAV to provide targeting data.
The problem is scale. No one in the private sector makes or needs mortar rounds, so the DoD doesn't benefit from buying COTS components for them. Whereas you can pretty much just strap a grenade to a quadcopter with a few minor tweaks and you're in business. Which is more or less exactly what the Ukrainians have been doing with their surplus Soviet anti-tank grenades.
It doesn't matter if it's 'price effective per kg' - it can't disable a tank, and might not disable a soft target without a direct it.
The 900 series is the one that might be quite useful.
All of that said, we'll have to see how countermeasures work it may be that they develop rapidly to neutralize drones ...
... and then a rational actor like China takes the 'saturation approach' and launches 100's of them at a single battalion etc..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XM395_Precision_Guided_Mortar_...
Also, mortars and other artillery are subject to a counter-battery fire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PcWS1marOA
The most interesting part is that it flies extremely fast so you'll never see it coming. Particularly how it bursts through a windshield before exploding.
I get why Russia is having trouble adapting (logistics, sanctions, brain drain, paper tiger military) but outside of the Russia-Ukraine war, how effective would a COTS drone really be in a different state-vs-state direct conflict?
One thing we can expect is home on signal anti-aircraft batteries and anti-loitering munitions that seek other loitering munitions. I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of the last big wars where such COTS drone tactics are successful.
Congratulations, you just invented the anti-radiation missile.
The drone space seems to be speed running decades of SAM and combat aviation tech.
If it can be entirely radio silent within the last mile radius (records video for later transmission, finds targets and attacks without intervention) then jamming would be extremely difficult.
Have you heared Link 1?
We've already had western made drones on the battlefield for decades, this is nothing new, just much cheaper than what the west makes while doing the same job equally good.
But the man portable kamikaze drones are the real game changer.
Sure, you can use your spotters to scout ahead, but why put them in danger of an ambush and have them get killed by a sniper or hidden machinegun, when you can survey that area from a safe distance, and take out the sniper/machine gun if you see one?
This is not meant to replace artillery battalions and scouts, but to complement them.
Kamikaze drones have a role for the smaller units, but at the battalion level, it's better to use a surveillance drone to coordinate fires from mortars, MLRS and artillery. The rounds fired from these systems typically have longer range than a drone, a higher rate of fire, and larger warheads.
You can put the spotter and the artillery in your backpack? The task is only one part of the equation.
Here is Indian article with some technical details. https://www.defenceview.in/why-did-the-turkish-tb2-uav-sudde...
All of the above I bet.
I think a big risk here is thinking that only Russia is less competent than advertised. My guess is that 90% of professional militaries (at least those without a LOT of active recent combat) are Potemkin villages wholly incapable of operating as advertised.
Against any of those militaries, things which really should not work, frequently will work fine.
I doubt NATO would have this problem, not only because Turkey is part of NATO but because US tactics would probably be more effective against similar drones. We rely on fighters to establish air superiority more than SAMs, while the Russians do the opposite. Worst case scenario, F-15s/16s/22s/35s can use cannons and pilots are more adaptable than radar systems. I also suspect that the F-35's sensors at least are far superior to whatever the Russians are relying on.
I am also somewhat suspicious of the reports we have heard about them striking deep within Russian territory. Not because I doubt their veracity, but because I am certain we are not getting all of the relevant information. I wouldn't be surprised to find out if there was some supplementary SEAD (suppression of enemy air defense) going on that Ukraine and its western allies are remaining tight lipped about. It wouldn't shock me to find out that NATO has some clever trick for blinding Russian SAM radar in a way that the Russians haven't figured out yet. The Russians would never ever admit the existence of such a capability publicly because it would totally destroy demand for their military exports, and NATO wouldn't want to tip their hand in anyway that would give the Russians an opportunity to adapt.
Probably anti-drone drones or some sort of CIWS is going more effective.
Or just, ya know, shoot the damn thing.
The specs are well within what you can expect to hit with with an "old enough they give them out like candy" AA gun.
1. apologies for lacking a better source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot
2. i.e. 2/3rds the cost of a single missile
>"Military analysts had previously assumed that slow, low-flying drones would be of little use in conventional combat, but the TB2 can take out the anti-aircraft systems that are designed to destroy it."
Yeah, no. Turkey is too distant to take up any mindspace in India. The two countries don't really have an intersecting or conflicting interests.
Remember, most of what we read on the internet is written by insane people.[1] That's doubly true for Twitter. Any conclusions you draw from them will be hopelessly inaccurate.
1: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/9rvroo/most...
https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/indias-response-to-the-ukrai...
You need to build them, you need to train operators, you need to deploy said operators. They are not autonomous.
A better question is, if Russia's electronic warfare capabilities are so amazing, how are the drones even able to operate?
We'll probably find out that the capabilities were either overstated, or not deployed nearly enough to matter. Pretty sure some AA battery money went to Yacht upkeep.
This is all speculation based on how I expect the governments there work.
I suspect that if the Ukrainians wanted Russian munitions, they'd just need to wander over in Russian uniforms, and pick some up...
I'm sure they do, but they're quite small and mostly made out of composites that are fairly transparent to radar. Their radar cross section must be very small compared to a gen 4 jet fighter.
> What is preventing Russia from building these things in the thousands and I don't know patrol the skies of eastern ukrain with it?
Money, corruption, inertia, brain drain...
Still not less than the most of missiles (engine, ordnance).
The real problem is what it is not some video game, you don't have a "satellite view" with enemy units outlined with a red rectangles. Eg S300 was designed in 70s, it's UI/UX is eye-watering.
What will 'change things' is when China makes these and sends 1000 of them to Taiwan all at once with another few thousand in reserve.
The cost/scale/saturation issue hasn't really been explored.
Notably - the 'West' is helpless to support Ukraine because nobody has anything useful except the Americans who have mostly 'super high end gear'.
It'd be nice to see Ukraine being brought onto F-series jets, predators and other gear sooner than later.
The other glaring hole is AA - Patriots are really expensive and there's only a few of them, this feels like a weakness to me in that Russia could feasibly strike those and then what?
There's a 'mid market' of gear that needs to be sorted out.
Finally - artillery - it's not going away, we're struggling to get Ukraine what amounts to almost ancient tech.
NATO should have 100's of M777's in reserve, precisely for these occasions, i.e. to lend out as necessary.
Are we watching the same war?
Elon decided to go ahead with the launch. At some point we need to start calling SpaceX a defense company.
If you don't think there's a military application for AI, self-driving whatevers, logistics innovations, or even social media you are uninformed or willfully ignorant.
edit: spelling error
Look at the B-2 bomber. Parts were procured via front companies to conceal the project. Do you think that's the only time where that has occurred?
There are many layers to that onion and it is obfuscated for a variety of reasons. The least of which is that I don't think many rock star engineers would be happy if they thought their life's work was being used to fuel the murder machine.
Also, not sure if calling it "the murder machine" is necessary or useful for a discussion. Many people, myself included, believe that a strong military is necessary for the United States to ensure its own survival and apply its protective cordon around NATO, Korea, Japan, etc. and despite its flaws has probably led to much less overall destruction and death than if the U.S. had a very weak military and could not deter more global conflicts.
Sorry this is my way of saying I think this is what many unsuspecting valley engineers, who in some cases lean quite leftish, would term it if they knew they were contributing to it. Case in point, I worked at a defense comm company and when a fellow engineer overheard a use case in drones they literally wept. That engineer left shortly thereafter for the valley. I use colorful language sometimes for my own amusement.
My point is that not every piece used by the military industrial complex(specifically agencies with 3-9 letters) comes from standard procurement channels. Sure, when you're building F-35s or whatever. But this assumes every big government project is a big government project. Some are one-offs. I'm intentionally obtuse here for a myriad of reasons and I've said about all I can.
Are you saying they got off the shelf parts? Otherwise, they would be working with the government, even if the purpose of the components wasn't known.
Most of Elon's businesses have state related support in some way (even Twitter), it's part of how he operates.
A more direct offensive buildup is happening with their government Starlink satellites: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Military_capabilities
They do themselves. ITAR compliance is a prerequisite to employment at SpaceX.
Quite a lot faster than that actually; Mach 20+ on reentry. The way the media talks about "hypersonics" without getting into specifics is very misleading. Hypersonic cruise missiles are a tough nut to crack, but hypersonic reentry vehicles are table stakes for ballistic missiles and spacecraft.
Any company doing shipping for the military has large government contracts. The government contracts have turnover limits, and every company this large works with the government a lot.
What is the real-world outcome you're going for?
"Russian space chief Dmitry Rogozin apparently threatens Elon Musk"
https://www.space.com/russian-space-chief-rogozin-threatens-...
Here are a few interesting stories that I saw over the past couple of months
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-rapidly-developed-ghost-dro...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-technology-bu...
https://www.popsci.com/aviation/black-hawk-helicopter-first-...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/24/ukraine-war-...
Super cheap drones could make a difference too:
https://www.tomsguide.com/best-picks/best-cheap-drones
Something super simple with GPS for reconnaissance, for example
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/20/politics/ukraine-aircraft-spa...
Neither Air Force is spending a lot of time in hotly contested territory.
I suggest UKR AF is really just patrolling within the territory they control as a deterrent to Russian AF.
But neither spending a lot of time directly in each other's turf.
A bit sad UKR doesn't have better AA because Russia is flying a lot more sorties on their lines than they should be able to get away with. They are a bit too fast for MANPADs.
The entire point was… anyway…
I’ll be more explicit next time so we don’t run into the weeds and waste everyone’s time and get right to the issue
Strange that their nonexistent air force has been getting transfers of spare parts so they can fly more of their nonexistent fighters.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/20/politics/ukraine-aircraft-spa...
Ukraine is a large country.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/03/starlink-helps-u...