Housing prices have been able to balloon because debt has been very, very cheap. Whether or not that will continue remains to be seen.
What’s the smart bet on what will happen?
Are there actually data that say that? I'd only expect data to exist on the first half, but there may also be data (as opposed to a fairly good supposition) from the second.
I'll say from personal experience, it does change your perspective. If a sewage treatment plant moves in next door, I can't move like a renter can. It's a feeling of real vulnerability that I didn't fully understand until I felt it.
I understand the NIMBY-ism. I do wonder how much people care about the value of their house going up if they don't plan to sell soon. There are advantages to your home being less valuable and the only disadvantages come if you want to leverage your home more, refinance (not likely with rates going up) or sell it.
I think this idea of wanting your house price to be low to avoid property taxes then suddenly increase the value when it's time to sell is like the idea of having your employer pay a trust so you can collect food stamps 11 months of the year then the trust pays you all your money in December.
It might be possible and it wouldn't shock me if a few people do it but it's not the normal approach.
No one wants to live next to a dump. That's why it affects property values. Because it also effects living conditions.
Meanwhile, a lot of people never plan to sell their home. Yes, if you plan on moving soon, you care about property values going up. If your horizon is 10 years, 20 years, or your kids selling the place? Less so.
That's the real reason California has Prop 13
They definitely don't want it to go down, especially below the loan amount; but tools like Zillow make it way too easy to book "paper profits".
If you bought for $100k and later noticed Zillow say your house as $250k, and now it's saying $200k you can feel like you lost out even though you're still "up" - something that was more difficult before as you'd have to try to compare similar homes for sale.
So while I understand your argument I'm reticent to accept it on the basis of the concerns mentioned above. Settling down permanently is not the same proposition it was fifty years ago. My grandma grew up in Denver, the rapidity that it grew with was apparently astounding and that growth drastically altered the culture and the landscape, what were once dirt roads are now median-divided 3-lanes with cookie cut houses lining them as far as the eye can see. If you can imagine not wanting to live there with the rapidly accelerating growth and the headaches that come with it, you're not alone.
There are also economic concerns, which can be highly unpredictable, and these are considerations I'm sensitive to. I've watched commodity fluxuations result in massive layoffs time and time again. When given the requisite information to make a decision on whether or not to sell, it's plain to see that it's a benefit to have pricing steadily increasing, whether it's to avoid the wave of sells when an industry reels back or shutters, or when one is intent on moving to greener pastures, or at least a better home in a more agreeable neighborhood.
I'd pay taxes which, given the parent statements terms, would roughly equivocate them with asset price insurance before I stuck my neck out to get burned or blown up.
This is the argument that homes are currently overvalued.
Or, as an alternative, market is going to freeze.
Given that we've rediscovered fiscal stimulus and inflation as a result, I have a feeling that era is dead. You can't have low rates in an inflationary environment.