Something is broken. Homes that wound have been listed at $1,000,000 in 2019 are going for $1.750,000 today. Interest rates going up should cool it off but I fear it will break much of the rest of the economy. There was a massive mismatch in executive policy and fed policy and here we are.
Say it with me:
> “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon...” - Milton Friedman
It turns out years of suppressing rates combined with dumping many trillions of dollars onto a supply constrained economy causes a rise in prices. Huh... You'd think the trained professionals at the fed would know this by now, but they continue to believe they can defy reality.
We are about to pay for 12 years of easy money policies.
I know that MMT is very hated but it seems very compelling.
They decided to test MMT and it failed so badly.
> They decided to test MMT and it failed so badly.
Not giving either one a pass though because Biden reappointed Powell and failed to give Powell the political direction to raise rates late last year when it was obvious inflation was anything but transitory.
That's the theory anyway.
The fed chair is appointed by the president and still has some accountability to the political machine. It is independent in many ways but it is not truly independent.
> Its mandate is to keep inflation and unemployment in check
Yes and now it is also trying to fight climate change, wealth gaps, and other "ESG" goals.
For anyone interested trillion dollar triage is a great book.
The market is being completely rational. What "overvalued" here means is "are homes expensive compared to local wages" not "are homes irrationally expensive." Normally this would drive construction but the market is distorted by credit such that new construction is less economical (a result of 2008.)
This also forms a feedback loop: people are giving up on labor since housing consumes more than they make, driving up the price of construction, driving up the price of housing. It's likely the dollar will crash before middle/lower class hosing will.
The supply constraint is old but its not why housing is high - housing prices are high even in places where there is a lot of construction. Monetary policy explains it a lot better, and it predicts that at some point the trend will reverse.
It’s all about supply.
Boise property prices are definitely going up due to SF’s housing dysfunction.
I've hit my quota, here's my reply: illegal immigrants still have to live somewhere So they're going to take housing off the market. They manage to rent houses in various ways (employers, government programs, ngos etc.)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTSA
People keep repeating these statements about underbuilding or lack of supply as if they're backed by data, but it's just he said she said. Number of housing units to households is the same as it was in the year 2000, and in line with historical levels.
Home price gains were driven by a low rate induced speculative frenzy. It's inflationary psychology at work. E.g. people spin narratives about why you need to buy now to avoid being priced out, thus everybody starts to panic buy making the prophecy self fulfilling in the end.
But this never ends well. At the root of every bubble is some collective narrative that "justifies" its existence
But anyway, beyond fungibility, demographic trend is towards population decline. Spread between population growth and rate of new home construction is at an all time high.
And even CA recently passed a law allowing densification on certain SFH plots
Demographic decline is a much bigger problem to solve, not something that should stop us from taking action.
The averages say otherwise and I would bet continue to do so if we check-in, in a decade.