Swarming drones autonomously navigate a dense forest
techcrunch.com
techcrunch.com
Lots of options. If against personel they just kamikaze in... if against armoured targets a small explosive charge on a hundred or so drones could easily destroy a target.
There's something about the swarming nature of these things that makes them even more unsettling.
Expect urban defence to feature a lot of nets in the near future.
They don’t really need armament to maim and kill.
https://acoup.blog/2022/04/22/fireside-friday-april-22-2022/
"In World War II, only 15 to 20 percent of combat infantry were willing to fire their rifles. In Korea, about 50 percent. In Vietnam, the figure rose to more than 90 percent."
[1] - https://www.amazon.com/Killing-Psychological-Cost-Learning-S...
I recently came back home from travels and realised that our neighbour’s car burned down(I live in London), and it just struck me how horrible it looks like. That’s after seeing many videos of total destruction in Ukraine. It just never popped into my mind how unusual it is to see something like that.
That wasn’t even people dying, just practical realisation how not far we are from total civilisation collapse, if the majority of citizens wanted that.
If anything, we see from the conflict in Ukraine that keeping smart weapons supplied in a modern conflict it a huge effort that needs a lot of interconnected players.
A really big gun, or missile (battery)…
You could drop hundreds of autonomous drone by air, make them land somewhere and wait in standby until they get activated or detect a threat.
They scale massively because 1 guy with 100 rifles won't do much more than 1 guy with 1 rifle, 1 guy with 100 trucks won't move faster than 1 guy with 1 truck. 0 guy with 100 drones would potentially kill 100 guys simultaneously for cheap since switchblade style drones are glorified DJIs with a grenade straped at the front
I suspect we will start seeing the first true drone swarm deployments in Ukraine over the next couple years. The world is simply not ready for how horrifying it will be. These things can be manufactured for a few hundred bucks a piece. Sony can pump out 10 million PlayStations in a few months. What happens when that kind of logistics and manufacturing is applied to kamikaze drones? You get swarms of tens of thousands of them. The entire future of land warfare from this point on will be an arms race between drone swarms. And the swarms will take on combined arms aspects; there will be AA, AT, AP, incendiary, electronic warfare, observation, and hunter-killer variants. Winning wars in the future will consist of choosing the correct size and makeup of your swarm to counter the enemy's capability.
That a person with a gun is coming to kill you
Or there are tiny machines floating outside your windows, in your vents, on your ceiling, ready to stab you with an undetectable poison the instant someone far away pushes a button..
Which do you think you have a better chance of spotting and defending against?
Also this:
I am honestly more scared of chemical weapons and barrel bombs. You know, things that have actually been confirmed to have devastating impact in Syria.
Somehow the typical hacker news commenter is worried about very precise robotic hit men operating in large groups to be used for indiscriminate killing when WW2 weapons were already enough to wipe out entire cities. You're more likely to have died from the atomic bombs deployed in Nagasaki or Hiroshima than from some tiny plastic drone with a 5 minute flight time.
I mean think about a hypothetical nuclear weapon that kills everyone recognized via facial recognition in a 10 kilometer radius. Most bystanders aren't important enough to have their face on that database.
If you have a drivers’ license or a passport, you’re in it.
> WW2 weapons were already enough to wipe out entire cities
Indiscriminately. Which gives you a big PR issue. Being able to kill only, say, every military-aged male in a city without touching anyone else is a bit different.
But seriously though, there's a lot of heuristics that can be used for "is a target and not a dummy". Will they be perfect? No. But they don't need to be.
You couple the fast drones with slower surveillance ones at higher altitude to identify possible targets. Or pair them with local security cameras, or the victim’s cell phone pings.
search: >'bird of prey trained to take-down drones'< @DDG : <https://html.duckduckgo.com/html/?q='bird of prey trained to...>
But, here's the thing. Current tech-level drones are already extremely lethal to civilians. Given the state of modern AI, including the poor abilities for facial recognition in real-world situations, sending "autonomous" weapons to take out targets in civilian areas will only increase the number of civilian victims.
Not to mention, assassinations, in the first place.
Edit: I get the gist of your comment- that it's already possible to kill (civilians or not) in horrible ways. Yes, but why do we need yet another way to do that, then? The more ways there are to commit wanton murder and destruction, the worse, surely?
"Once it exists, a weapon will never be unmade, and it will be used."
Example from REGA, a swiss SAR provider. https://www.rega.ch/en/our-missions/cutting-edge-technology/...
It would be a far more dangerous place for a slender 18-year-old girl.
So it's like using a laptop to hammer a nail. There are way more deadliest, simplest and reliable solutions, unfortunately.
And ballistic missiles are not for the task -- too funky and expensive, they are used to strike fuel/amunition storages. For urban warfare they use howitzers, mortars and 500/1000/2000kg air bombs.
> So it's like using a laptop to hammer a nail.
No. It's like using a nail gun rather than a hammer.
> There are way more deadliest, simplest and reliable solutions, unfortunately.
But none with the potential of drones and swarms. Cheap, easy to replace units that could fly, provide recoissance along with offensive/defensive capabilities. And it's just the beginning.
I suspect most armies, law enforcement, private mercenaries, mall cops, etc will be using drones in the future.
I'm going to copy an analogy I saw elsewhere: what we're seeing now is the equivalent of how planes were used in WWI; slow, not very effective, with limited range and roles. By the time WWII came around, there was technological and strategic improvements leading to to high-alt bombers, fighter escorts, dive bombers and jet engines. Nothing a WWI pilot would recognize. Drones will likely evolve in ways that would make their current use seem quaint.
Uhhh the latter is exactly what we're worried about
Traditionally it has been very hard to force the will of the few onto the many, without at least having some of those many taking part in the game. There are technologies with the potential to massively alter that equation.
If you develop such a technology like this one you can be sure it might be used precisely for this purpose: powerful men now need fewer poor men to stay in power.
Maybe it is me living in Germany, but the imagination how the Nazis would have put to use the technology we are currently developing makes me shiver. Many of us create technology as if our democracies are built forever. And they are — until they are not. Or they are not — but not where we live, so we don't care.
I get, that it is hard to find any technology that couldn't in some way be abused in a horrendous fashion by the next authotarian society — however there certainly is a gradient there. And we decide where we feel comfortable to put ourselves.
The atomic bomb is a good example, a lot of the scientist working on it wouldn't have if there weren't fears that Nazi Germany was going to build it first.
This also reminds of the prisoners dilemma. If both parties choose not to build these systems we would be all fine, if one builds it and the others doesn't the other is screwed. If both build it they are both screwed but not as much.
In the last 100 years (and probalbly even further back) it has been incredibly difficult to fight an opponent who was fortified in a (bombed) city. Ukraine is a great example of what a few organized soldiers with anti-tank weapons can hold off.
Swarms of jamming resistant drones would completely trivialize urban fighting for the attacker. I'm worried about the future if attacking becomes easier than defending.
But you mentioned the anti-tank weapons. These didn't exist and before and a column of tanks would have an easy time with even a large and organized force of infantry soldiers. This is what happened in Poland during WW2.
So I'm hopeful that we will have a counter for these new systems like we now have counters to tanks.
https://acoup.blog/2020/03/20/collections-why-dont-we-use-ch...
> why ‘we’ – and by ‘we’ here, I mean the top-tier of modern militaries…
I don’t think either of my examples were top tier militaries, which is presumably why they resorted to chemical weapons to both win and subjugate the civilian population.
Edit:
I read the article you posted now. I don’t think I and the article disagree. I think chemical weapons are of use against civilian holdouts / paramilitary. This is especially the examples I used. The goal of this last phase of the war is not to kill everyone, but to make them lose hope and surrender.
Fighting them upright is a bad deal. You can overwhelm civilians but every tank they destroy boosts morale to the point you have to just destroy the city and kill hundreds of thousands to get them to give in. Chemical weapons disrupt life, injure civilians, and give them no proper enemy to fight back against for morale boosts. That they are ineffective is a positive in this scenario as from your POV, this is just a “police action” against “rebels”. You don’t want more effective weapons, since you believe you already won, and doing more is just wasting the population and resources you came here to conquer anyways.
I agree 100%, this is why we need more people working on getting 3D printing and other fabrication techniques into the hands of as many people as we can. The right to bear arms holds no water in the US as the DoD so massively outweighs any possible resistance the populace could offer; the only way to safeguard our democracies is to bring the scales back to level.
Different technological innovations in warfare have sometimes been leveling (eg guns as “the great equalizer”, anti-tank missiles) and sometimes had the opposite effect (e.g. attack helicopters and fighter jets). It does seem plausible that robotic weapons will favor those with vast resources, even when they lack manpower. It’s not impossible that it could go the other way, though. Actually, I can see drones going both ways.
It sounds like you are making the argument that collateral damage will make people more likely to rebel against an authoritarian regimes. Is that actually true?
I said: Certain technologies make it easier for the few to force the many. I did not say that certain technologies are the only way to do so.
Also: this is about numbers. The vast majority of Russians are in support of their president. Now imagine it would be less, lets say 30% or 10%. Or maybe 1%? At some point a threshold is crossed at which those in power cannot sustain themselves anymore.
And there are technologies that move that threshold down, because less people can control more people. Imagine e.g. how guns helped to sustain control of huge populations of colonized or enslaved people by relatively few oppressors. At this point in times guns pushed down the percentage of people needed to yield power over others.
At some point more people got guns and things leveled out a bit. Because ot was something multiple parties of a conflict could eventually use. But here comes the point: you still need people to wield those guns and willing to put their lives at risk. Sure you can trick them into doing that — but if you push your luck too much they can turn on you at any moment. For a swarm of killer drones you need less people and they don't need to risk anything.
Nearing the singularity, most people have their own personal defence drone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernor_Vinge#Realtime/Bobble_s...
The work done is by:
Disclaimer: Roboticist, have worked with fast-lab on World Robotics Sailing Championship
Technology getting abused by the DoD is "fine". Technology that has very few applications outside the DoD is less fine.
Not sure why you think a bunch of ground drones are useful against ICBMs.
1. The navy is already testing ground-based lasers powerful enough to destroy drones and light aircraft.
Expanding from Baktyar drones to autonomous ground weapons and lasers sounds ‘connected to a supercomputer’ sounds like a way to escalate the situation both within Ukraine, and to the rest of the connected community.
Sure, this could be useful if your forest is made of 3ft-spaced branchless bamboos, with no bushes or anything else to hit.
Are they just extremely myopic, and cannot see the consequences of their work at all? Or naive, in that they only can imagine the positive use cases?
...or (to simplify) are they evil and fully understand and welcome the terrifying outcomes?
So there is a third option, alongside your original two.
- Use it for evil purposes
- Sell it to other nations that then use it for evil purposes
Anyone involved in the defence industry is complicit in the death of innocents, your third option is a fallacy.
The effectiveness of a military is tightly bound to its long term R&D armaments. Without highly effective arms, and proper training and tactics, casualties suffered by our armed forces in combat would be far higher (as the Russians are discovering).
If you accept that the military exists at least in part to protect you, then investment in arms development follows as an obligation to those sent into harms way on your behalf.
Malevolent implies intent. I'm sure that there are non evil people who are working for BAE. I'm also sure that the vast majority of them have facilitated far more innocent death than worthy defense of life.
> casualties suffered by our armed forces in combat would be far higher
I have not supported any of the military action my nation has taken in my lifetime and any casualties are primarily a result of the greed (for power, votes, or wealth) of those in power. The lack of equipment has acutely caused casualties, but the existence of the military industrial complex has caused the wars in which they take place.
I'm not saying I have the great solution to end all war and create world peace. But I can't see a reason other than naivety, apathy, or propaganda that someone could work for BAE and think they are doing good in the world.
You say that you want the system to better than the current system. Well, who doesn’t want that? Germany would like to stop buying Russian gas, when it works for them. You draw benefit today from the imperfect system we have today. You could choose to abandon any claim to protection from the existing armed forces of your nation, or you can admit that you are a direct beneficiary of that system, and that it exists to protect you and others like you.
The people protecting you from a Russian invasion don’t deserve Javelin missiles to stop the advance of Russian tanks, or explosive reactive armor to keep them from being blown to bits by enemy shaped charges? Troops being sent now to garrison Poland and other NATO countries against a Russian assault are there on behalf of citizens of all NATO countries.
The third option isn't a fallacy if you are looking it from the perspective of that individual researcher who lives in a country that seeks to develop those weapons because its rivals are also developing them. They are thinking for their own safety and the safety for the people around them who live in that country. Would you do nothing if you know your efforts could potentially shield the people you love from harm? Or would you help build the system knowing that they might get misused, in the hopes that it at least protects you and the people dear to you?
EDIT: typos.
One weapon that comes to mind is the anti-tank missile. Without these weapons, tanks would be essentially invulnerable to light infantry.
That has implications for anybody fighting a war of resistance against a better armed aggressor. One example would be the Ukrainians, but in general, light infantry are typical of resistance movements, because they are cheaper to equip. The anti-tank missile dramatically reduces the ability of strong, aggressive states to dominate their neighbors, and citizens.
So far, drones have played a similar role. By massively lowering the financial and technical difficulties of providing close air support, they disproportionately benefit those combatants that don't have the money or resources to have a traditional air force.
I think a fixed-wing drone of the similar form factor is the way to go, would fly many times longer. However, they will fly much faster and can’t stop. To be able to reliably evade obstacles and other drones, they gonna need much better sensors, also more on-board GFlops of compute power to handle data from these sensors.
Fortunately, we still have amazing rate of technical progress so far in both cameras and mobile SoCs, driven by smartphones. For this reason, I think really amazing ones might arrive 5-10 years in the future.
Deploy the Tactical Trompe-l'œil
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Video 1 ID: 6305520207112
Video 2 ID: 6305519415112
API: https://apis.support.brightcove.com/playback/getting-started...
For request video by ID: https://edge.api.brightcove.com/playback/v1/accounts/{accoun...
Let's try:
https://edge.api.brightcove.com/playback/v1/accounts/5303899...
No joy for me, seems to want a request-policy-key, but if someone else wants to take a stab...
to under https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31269340 >peppertree -> 'Actual paper has video'<
To restore the context tree. thanks
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