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Comment by grapeskin | Hacker News Reader

Nobody expected Russia to suddenly try to seize all of Ukraine. It went from nothing to suddenly surrounding the country in weeks, and even then people called the Biden admin nuts for saying Russia was going to do it. Then they did it.

Nobody expected sanctions that cut Russia off from the world to an extent comparable only to North Korea. It's just something that people didn't imagine could happen to modern economies. People said cutting Russia off from SWIFT was absolutely unreasonable, impossible, and nobody would seriously consider it. Heads of state said they'd never do it despite the circumstances. Then they flipped and approved of it.

It's easy to look back and say "lol it's obvious" since it's in the news everyday and we're densensitized to it by now. But it was really a mindblowing series of events.

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You are mostly right except saying it came from nothing. It was a major escalation but they've been occupying Ukraine for years.

There was war in Ukraine since 2014 - ever since they refused to become another Belarus. I agree that many people underestimated Russian threat, but them expanding is not really unprecedented.

I think that one reason why it flopped that quickly is that Russia was creating precedents of what it is going to do around for years. So it became impossible to ignore.

And the ongoing precedent was that Russia could snip off chunks of any country they like and at worst they'd face very limited sanctions.

Taking a whole country at once in mainland Europe and having its economy completely isolated within a span of weeks was about as predictable as a magnitude 9.0 earthquake. Nobody was prepared, and no preparation would've been sufficient no matter what.

No, after Crimea, there was widespread expectation Russia will try to take more. Not least in Ukraine itself, which led to the military preparations there that have made it so expensive for Russia.

> Nobody was prepared, and no preparation would've been sufficient no matter what.

This is just not true tho. Had Ukraine was not prepared, they would fold the way Russia expected them to. Instead, Ukraine did quite a lot of army reforms, lobbied to get guns long before war. They did not expected Russians to attack right now, because Russia seemed unprepared ... which they was. But they were not ruling out eventual attempt to takeover.

It is also not true that no-one anticipated. There were people both right before and longer before talking about eventuality - including Biden and American secret services. There were some people who did not cared about topic. There were many people who either knee jerkedly refused the eventuality, without looking at what is going on in Russia. Then there were people who rejected to possibility for political or financial reasons.

But, the notion that no-one was predicting it is simply untrue.

I agree with the OP that this situation is unprecedented. However, you're correct that this wasn't totally out of the blue. There were concerns about this that started emerging last summer, and then escalated again in the fall. This was related to the water crisis in Crimea as well as falling support for Putin in Russia.

https://www.ft.com/content/5eda71fc-d678-41cd-ac5a-d7f324e19...

I also think this has always really been about the eastern Ukrainian region. The stuff about taking western Ukraine has been a strategic ruse and/or secondary aim.

By unprecedented, in which time span it is unprecedented for Russia to become authoritarian or expansive? If anything, there seems to be continuity in Russian behavior.

> I also think this has always really been about the eastern Ukrainian region. The stuff about taking western Ukraine has been a strategic ruse and/or secondary aim.

I find this super unlikely. If the goal was eastern Ukrainian region, their initial attack makes zero sense. And also, their rhetoric's makes zero sense - they talked about Ukraine not being real country, Ukrainians not beaing real nation.

You don't need to attack Kyiv to get eastern region. There is nothing to suggest that this was ruse, but everything to suggest they failed and they are looking for second price.

> It went from nothing

There was a previous "bulling", that escalated later, as it always do. Both countries were in a war for Crimea since 2014, but I agree with your idea that it was unlikely.

What is really scary is that it takes so few people to put by now four countries in war (five if we count Georgia) in the middle or Europe, and trigger the events that drag the rest by inertia. Zillions of working hours to avoid exactly this, and it only takes one old man with obvious principles of dementia that denies all every single time like a child. This and less than 1000 helpers against 500 millions of people is all that we need to return to 1940.

> Nobody expected Russia to suddenly try to seize all of Ukraine.

That's false.

> It went from nothing to suddenly surrounding the country in weeks.

It started in 2014. Or maybe even earlier. That's not weeks. That's 8 years.

Speaking of North Korea, their sanction-proofing themselves might finally pay off. I bet their heavily sanction-proofed products--not vulnerable to sanctions of their complements, and not dependent on sanctionables for production--are more attractive to the Russian markets now. And the sanctions mean they have less competition.

You know I haven't seen a single DPRK product in my life? Not one. Not even a book. Not even a propaganda poster, not a whole lot of those in the Americas. Yeah online I've seen them but that's not the same thing.

I’m not sure that NK is really a good example to follow. Yes, it’s certainly possible to become sanction proof like NK, but NK is basically subsisting and even that is being charitable. If your plan is to rekindle the golden age of your nation, then becoming an international pariah and have half the population starving is probably not the way to go.

What happened to (and with) Russia is a tragedy. Really, a nation and people with so much potential. Hardworking and capable of great sacrifice. They hold vast territories with unparalleled abundance of resources. Imagine how much of a force of good they could be. Actually, forget that. They didn’t even need to be good, just create an environment where everyone can strive instead of the few. Imagine how powerful they could be if only they didn’t turn into a petty kleptocracy.

> and even that is being charitable

Don't say you're being charitable when you're being cruel.

But it creates window of parallel systems. And it may end up weakening West control of global financial system. People think that by doing that Russia will suddenly leave Ukraine but they are not realising that that won't happen.

May.

But Russia's only export of value is gas.

Get China and India to go all-in on renewables, while getting a soft agreement with them that future gas purchases from Russia will cost them in other ways, and the question is who would want to join Russia's parallel system?

Didn't say my suggestion is easy or likely or without risk. It would take some really careful diplomacy.

but it is feasible.

The US has already shown to China that they can and are willing to inflict pain by way of sanctions. At this point I think countries like China, Brasil, India, Indonesia etc will try their best to make sure that their economies can not be affected too much by US/Europe whims. That ship has sailed I think.

That's my point. Things won't the same again.

Russia in a parallel system will be able to develop its own technology. It wont happen overnight, but it will happen. If China ever wants to take over Taiwan, it will have an interest in working with Russia. China has been building new coal and gas plants every year.... They are unlikely to shut these down before their useful life has ended - so they will need Russian Gas and Coal for decades to come. China doesn't want to be pushed around by the USA. It may be painful for them as well - but I think the will consider that they must do it.

Now lets look at the USA. Could be Oil/Gas independent, but current government makes that difficult. Dependent on Russia and China for many commodities and rare earth metals. Manafucturing sector has been exported to China over the past 20 years, meaning that many goods are not even made in the USA anymore. Huge shortage of semiconductors - which are used in every electronic product these days including cars. The USA must start the move of Manafucturing many more products again locally. They will cost more... but if it doesn't do this it will likely be in a very bad position if China tries to take over Taiwan.

In summary global supply chains must be re-adjusted, which will take years. Whether this helps prevent further war... or adjustments are because of war will depend on how things are handled by United States politicians and business leaders. At this stage I suspect it will likely be because of war for the US/West and China will have been planing for this eventuality.

Ukraine may manage to push Russia away or not. Either way, continuing business with Russia with its current ideology and behavior would be guaranteed to weaken West.

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