I'm curious why you became a "professional investor" instead of following your own advice.
> Are you better than them?
Are you?
> Are you better than them?
Are you?
The less glib answer is that what I said above applies to managing your own money as a part time investor. If you are managing other people's money as well as your own, and doing it full time, with access to huge datasets and sophisticated models, then you are playing a totally different game.
I think he's saying that no-one person can be better.
Stock market crashed on 9-11. So what happened the next time the world had such a huge hit (Covid)? the markets rose because everyone was piling to get that same post-911 dip. It didn't exist because everyone that was expecting it caused the same to not happen. So I guess if you think you know what's going to happen next. You're probably 1 of a million others that are guessing the same thing and so what you think will happen doesn't.
It also doesn't help that the government's reaction changes to major crisis events too - and those actions you can't predict- let alone what affect they will have.
It's basically a super large neural net (the largest). I mean can someone put in something crazy into GPT3 and before they enter it (something not entered previously) GUESS what's going to come out?
What? The market (SPX) dipped 35% within a couple weeks in March 2020. Yes, it rose afterwards, because the FED opened the floodgates, but there was a very significant dip first.
Not OP but can answer... It's because if you don't start with a massive amount of capital you won't make enough money to support yourself. Hence why OP recommended to simply invest the time into your own job or start a business.
A 40% return on $100k (which is a great return BTW) is barely more than minimum wage...
Meanwhile a few % of a billion $ can sustain a firm.