E.g. urban water use was about 6 million acre feet in 1970 and is about 8 million acre feet now-- +33%, but a small share of the total. Agricultural water use was about 30 million acre feet in 1970 and is about 37 million acre feet now-- +23%.
So, agricultural uses of water have increased a big fraction of urban increases on a percentage basis, and 3.5 times as much on an absolute basis.
> If they've indeed moved towards more water intensive crops
Almonds have grown from 100 million pounds a year in 1970 to 3.1 billion pounds in 2020-- +3000%. This is a change in allocation that no one rational would make with the scarcity of water in California, but artificially cheap agricultural water encourages it.
> as noted elsewhere taking their water rights away will not be cheap as it's a "taking" as used in the Bill of Rights
While occasionally a court has agreed with this argument, for the most part federal judges have rejected this line of argument.