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Comment by mbesto | Hacker News Reader

I really think the success of 4S is due to 2 things:

1. Many iPhone 3G/3GS users never upgraded to 4. This is their chance.

2. iOS5 has many compelling features. Us techies forget that the average joe doesn't really understand upgrades, versioning, etc. Phones are sold as both a hardware and software solution and so many of the iOS5 features are inherently see as being a feature of 4S and not just a feature of any iOS device.

Many of the tech blogs are looking at a technology aspect (RAM oh my!) and not towards how the common man thinks and acts.

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Just to be clear, your hypothesis for why the 4S is successful is that Apple nailed all the attributes of a smart phone product line that get users to pay for regular upgrades. :)

3. Also this:

Potential customers for iPhone 4 launch: 90 million (AT&T).

Potential customers for iPhone 4S launch: 240 million (AT&T, Verizon, Sprint).

And they even have a few customers outside the USA. ;)

I was just about to say this ;)

> iPhone 4S is available today in the US, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and the UK

While i am half techie at my core, i upgraded for the very reasons you cite. I'm a former 3G owner, and i was getting really fed up with how slow it was, not to mention no iOS5 support. It was time to upgrade so for me the 4s was the preferable upgrade path.

Not too happy with myself for giving in to standing 2 hours in line though. I should have at least waited a day or two.

I took a quick jaunt to the closest apple store to me (Mall of America), and the wait was nonexistent. They apparently had every employee in the store at the time, it literally was about 50/50 apple employees/customers. My friend in Boston had the same experience picking hers up. But apparently there the black 4s's were gone.

Most Apple stores around us ran out of stock within approx 4 hours. I couldnt get to the mall till after lunch anyhow and since i cant afford to by a phone outright i went to a telecom operator. They're the only one that had stock on launch date. The operators were on a pre-order policy.

So everyone was queuing here unfortunately.

My 3GS started acting up just days before the 4S launch, so I lined up at 4:30am to ensure I got a 4S.

I was amazed at the lack of 3GS phones in the line. So many people with 4s upgrading. Also many people buying 2 each, perhaps because in Canada you can buy them unlocked.

I wonder what were other locations were like?

Analysts should understand that most 3GS users didn't upgrade though. Most people don't replace a bit of hardware costing several hundred dollars / pounds (plus associated contract costs potentially) after 12 months.

The same will be true of the Samsung Galaxy S2 - those users won't be queuing up to replace it after 12 months (or if they are it's a bad sign rather than a good one).

You're not wrong about it as a factor, just saying that analysts should get this and figure it in.

I don't know about most, but I think many are upgrading. I've had mine for over two years now and preordered the 4S.

3GS users have waited more than 12 months. I haven't upgraded yet, but that's because I wanted to wait for the lines to die before I decided on what I wanted to get.

The 4S is looking mighty tempting though, and I was going to get it unlocked. (Because I hate being locked to three year contracts, stupid Canada.)

I did what you are contemplating - got an unlocked 4S after having my 3GS for 2 1/2 years.

You won't be disappointed, the 4S is so much faster at everything. And Siri is amazing. The only downside is that I have started looking for the 'Siri button' on my iMac.

Well that's all well and good, I'm just worried that they're going to release another new fancy phone next year and I won't be able to afford getting it (which I will want to.)

Glad to hear that the upgrade is worth it though!

You may be correct as I think I saw an informal survey of iPhone 4S buyers that stated only a small percentage were upgrading.

However, iPhone 3GS users for the most part have had the phone 24 to 12 months, and if you are eligible for an upgrade with AT&T, it seems you pay the iphone subsidy each month (by my estimates, around $50 per month) regardless of whether you upgrade or not. So it makes sense to upgrade and sell the new phone on ebay if you want to keep your 3GS.

Can I ask about your estimate of $50 a month? I've always estimated about $20 (T-mobile's old discount) which made sense given that a $400 discount over 24 months would be about 17 a month.

The ATT iPhone costs I think 80$ a month. If you get a Virgin Mobile phone with the same plan, it costs 35$ per month. And the Virgin Mobile plan is a little better.

I was also basing this off of the Sprint iPhone costing roughly the same as the ATT iPhone, and Virgin Mobile supposedly using the Sprint network.

> Well, yes. Apple really isn't expecting that many 4 users to upgrade; most people don't buy a phone every year.

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