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Comment by NationalPark | Hacker News Reader

We have some relatively recent public polling data on this phenomenon: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/08/20/republicans...

For what it's worth, the decline of trust in institutions is primarily among "Republican/lean Republican" respondents, who are a minority of American voters and likely a minority of American non-voters as well.

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> For what it's worth, the decline of trust in institutions is primarily among "Republican/lean Republican" respondents, who are a minority of American voters and likely a minority of American non-voters as well.

The problem with this line of thinking is that "Republican/lean Republican" is not a fixed trait. People can switch to that category instantly, overnight; so dismissing them just because the last time there was an election the other party managed to curry more votes after having every advantage possible - that's quite dangerous from a societal coherence standpoint.

I think it depends on exactly which institutions too. I would guess that law enforcement is an institution that more liberals distrust and more conservatives support.

Also depends on which law enforcement! "Fuck the ATF" might be more common on the right than the left for instance.

Are they still a minority?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/joe-bidens-approval-...

Yes, there is a clear political tribal alignment between the current "out-group" and skepticism of institutions, but the rise of that iconoclasm on the right seems to be correlating with its growth as a whole.

They aren't a minority. As of 2021, there are more Republicans than Democrats.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferen...

I think your summary is obscuring some of the nuance in that data. What it shows is that independent voters self-identify as "lean rep"/"lean dem" based on their approval of the current president, which is low right now. Historically though, self-identified independents lean dem more than they lean rep (data in your link). Consider that the last time a Republican presidential candidate won the popular vote was in 2004, and before that was in 1988. It's well known that conservatives tend to vote Republican, and also tend to have much higher voter participation rates than progressives, so if your belief is that there are more Republicans and Democrats, you would expect to see more popular vote wins in elections with generally high participation (relative to other American elections - obviously American voter participation is dismal overall). So what accounts for that discrepancy?

You break out a poll to cast a group as fringe. Other people bring up other polls (more recent ones) to counter that argument, and then you shift to a different line of evidence citing "historical trends." Please, take this advice to heart, you are clearly trying to justify a conclusion with whatever evidence you can grab at hand. Take a step back and ask yourself if tribal loyalty is clouding your judgement.

We are all allowed (at least in the United States) to change our minds on things, but we can get in our own way. Lots of people seem to be changing their minds these days based on recognizing that their trust in some institution, process, or brand was misplaced. That might be you in a little while, and if it is, don't hate who you once were or once believed. Here's wishing you a good journey on your search for truth.

The original point I was making, "republicans are a minority", is true, and the data shows that. This isn't a tribalism thing, it's a question of data analysis. Also, I take umbrage at your patronizing tone. Personally attacking me does not change the data.

No, it doesn't show that. You are a partisan trying to make a partisan point.

Here, swing this one, a minority of Americans support the President, Democrat policies, and plan to vote for a Democrat in 2022. There's your minority.

Completely changing your post, after it's been replied to, without an indication it was edited, is dishonest. You are not arguing in good faith.

Agreed. Also, calling conservatives a minority is misleading since I'd hardly call like 47% a minority. It's technically true, but it's awfully close to even.

It's also worth remembering that unaffiliated is the largest group, and has been growing. Lots of partisans like to poopoo the idea that "independents" exist, and claim that they are just closet-partisans, but I don't buy it. Massive distrust of politicians and establishments is not something people are faking because they want to fake their stance on the internet.

Anecdotally, people who consistently vote for Republicans are less likely to identify themselves personally as Republicans than in the analogous Democrat case. (The media made "Republican" a dirty word, but didn't really change anyone's mind.)

Polls are good measures of the kind of people who willingly talk to pollsters.

If you're willing to dismiss polling out of hand for selection bias reasons, then why would you put any more weight onto intuitive arguments that rely on an even smaller and less systematic sampling?

Why would I trust reason over a process that collects a series of anecdotes from the most bat-shit members of society willing to talk politics with a stranger on the phone and then tries to correct their data through mumbo jumbo fake math?

Actually, there are more Republicans than Democrats.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferen...

Looking at that data, Republicans trust the institutions they control and Democrats trust the institutions they control, with the trends following the direction the institutions are themselves moving. Our institutions continue to polarize and cleave society as a consequence.

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