You can compare the percentage of GDP figure to this one showing military spending as percentage of all government spending, where it looks like we're spending less and less on weapons: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.ZS
So while total dollar amount is maybe a coarse measure, the GDP or the fraction worldwide government spending are so contingent on the details of literally every other human activity as to unusable for quick observations.
Assuming military budget planning has a window of a few years, would a moving average of GDP be an appropriate solution? Or am I thinking too simplistic?
I mean something X being highest right now is a pretty clear statement, it is either true or false, if X is well defined. But then your problem is you want to have Z instead, which hopefully is accounted for every other effect except for the factor you want to measure, such as inflation, GDP, etc. But the more you add, you either makes your Z definition sensitive to these other factors you’re not interested in (such as a peak comes from the denominator, not the numerator), or we really admit we can’t calculate Z for sure, and is now a statistical model (any kind of smoothing including the MA you mentioned is to admit we don’t know the true state but can only observe it with noise.) Now the statement of “Z is highest now” is no longer a true or false statement, but a probabilistic one.
Certainly then P(Z is highest) = 60% or so wouldn’t make much of a headline and can be confusing.
So my point was rather than trying to create a perfect model (which you can’t, and what you learn from it won’t be clear as well), sometimes just deal with the statement and methodology and judge if it is a clickbait or has some merit of truth there.
We are largely talking about bombs and bullets here. Yes, smarter and smarter bombs but bombs nonetheless.
I feel like the proper comparison point is tons of explosives.
And remember: every proximity fuse antiair bullet has a vacuum tube and mini-radar in it to run the proximity fuse logic (if close to enemy, then explode).
Modern weapons are smarter than that, but WW2 era weapons were still quite smart.
Case in point: the biggest expenditure of the US Military is... Healthcare, the Veteran's Affair's department. The next biggest expenditures are Research and Development (which includes DARPA-funded projects. Technically defense, but I don't think anyone would call the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Network_Challenge Darpa Network Challenge a "wargame")
By just looking at military spending per department, you over-estimate the amount of money spent on warmaking.
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So defense-spending is one metric (too much money allocated), and maybe "tons of explosives" is too little.
USA didn't really have that many casualties in Iraq or Afghanistan (it wasn't like Vietnam or Korea where huge amounts of injured soldiers existed). As such, the VA-department is largely handling things like COVID19, diabetes, and other "typical" ailments. While technically "department of defense" funds, I don't think it really counts as "military expenditure", not in the way the article is discussing anyway.
There's really no comparison between back then and today with regards to labor costs and/or military manpower. The expectations for health care just rose in the last 60 years.
That's where I was going with "number of explosives", because I'd expect that the "number of explosives per soldier" to be relatively constant. (Sure, weapons can get more sophisticated, but soldiers have a hard limit to what they can efficiently carry into battle).
For example: a modern AT4 (anti-tank munition) is roughly the same weight as the WW2 Bazooka. This is because the weight-limits per soldier are set. I'd expect that Roman Legionnaires, Medieval Knights, and modern soldiers to have all carried roughly the same equipment weight.
The AT4 is more accurate, more sophisticated and more damaging than a bazooka, but the general form factor and use is the same.
I presume you meant 2.7 million.
But the DoD currently has 2.91 million employees on payroll.
And yes, the cost of employing someone has gone up significantly since then.
Comparing tons of explosives doesn't make sense since information advantages and other factors have large effects on effectiveness of weapons (e.g. two rockets sinking Russia's black sea flagship).
Not that dollars make necessarily more sense here, but at least people understand dollar values.
But, as the title says, spending in absolute amounts is higher than ever and it's the likely the amount of stockpiled "killing power" is an all-time high. Nuclear weapons are the big outlier, but the nominal amount of vehicles, munitions and soldiers and their respective increases in efficiency probably mean we are more deadly than ever.