If you want to work with your current employer then you could simply ask your manager whether they've heard anything about adjusting salaries for inflation. You can keep it informal and light, but their response will tell you everything you need to know about whether they're planning on adjusting salaries.
It's no different than a business telling a customer "listen, you're gonna have to pay more because I have other more valuable work I could be doing". The customer can pay more or they can go elsewhere.
It's not "hard feelings", it's "Chris is more likely to leave than Pat."
It absolutely means you're leaving
If they match today, you've already telegraphed to them that you're not happy, and will leave as soon as you can
You're going to be first on the chopping block for layoffs, last in line for promotional consideration, etc
You're basically telling your employer "pay me more even though I'm not doing anything else for you"
If your boss is a competent business person, you would be insane not to ask for counter offer. This way I got a 50% bump last year. No hard feelings, and nothing has changed.
I received an offer, and my employer has beat it. If they only matched I would probably still leave.
Your suggestion is a weird behavior. Just be direct. We are in tech and don't need to beat around the bush. I can quit my job tomorrow and start a new job next week.
It's exactly as true that if you ask and they reject, then THEY are a marked man. You are on the lookout and will probably leave as soon as it's convenient. If they don't care about that then all the more reason to move on.
Managers and companies gain more with honey than salt. We need more goodwill, we are not just cogs.
I do understand financials here enough. When 4 out of 12 have left our team in the last few months, they did so after counter offers came up still 10s of thousands short. Replacing them will be next to impossible.