Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?
It looks like it's business as usual and war doesn't really have any impact on global economy at the moment. Prices were going up before Feb anyway.
So what's going on?
It looks like it's business as usual and war doesn't really have any impact on global economy at the moment. Prices were going up before Feb anyway.
So what's going on?
1. Capital controls. Russians are legally not allowed to sell their Rubles anymore. This decreases supply and keeps prices up.
2. A healthy dose of foreign currency ($1B/day from Germany alone) gives the Russian central bank plenty of tools to buy Rubles and increase demand for it to keep prices up.
This does not mean that the existing sanctions aren’t working. Eventually Russian factories will run out of machine spare parts and everything will grind to a halt, people will use their jobs, demand for goods will decrease, other factories will have to close due to lack of demand for their goods, their workers get laid off - you get the idea. This takes time though.
Disclaimer: I’m not an economist, but I do have a subscription to the Economist :)
They're expected to run out of accessible foreign currency reserves soon if they continue at this rate though, and the head of the Russian Central Bank tasked with actually making the trades is not optimistic about Russia's economic outlook for this quarter...
Over half of those are frozen due to sanctions, but even the rest is hard to use, because any transaction may be blocked out of abundance of zeal.
That's why capital controls are used to keep the official rate at pre-war level. Aside from restrictions on selling the ruble, Russian state forces all businesses that are paid in foreign currencies to immediately sell 70%. This increases the demand for ruble.
But it leads to the question, what _can_ more trading with Russia do, that China can't get elsewhere?
No way that can't backfire on the US! I swear a lot of arguments completely ignore how willing China is to put down the West.
According to [1], all imports from Russia to Germany in March were 4B EUR, so rather $139M/day, not $1B/day. Maybe that is the amount for all of the EU (with Germany then contributing 13.9%)?
[1] https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2022/03...
The source you provided (thank you) reads: “Proceeds from the sale of Russian oil and gas amount to around $1bn (£770m) a day”. In the context of the article, it is misleading, unfortunately; in itself it could even mean ‘from everyone’. Itʼs probably the number given by Borrell.
[1] https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/04/06/eu-has-spent-3...
[2] https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/04/08/eu-gave-e1-billion-in-m...
[3] https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/minister-says-eu-giving-russ...
Probably not. The Russian economy is unusually self-reliant, a legacy of Soviet times. It's pretty common to discover that for some niche weird thing there are only a handful of manufacturers in the world and one of them is Russian.
For example: one reason it's hard to build nuclear reactors is that the containment hull has to be made of a special kind of steel that you can only buy from two companies in the world. One is Japanese, the other Russian.
In particular their military is unusually self reliant. That's why they're famous for weapons exports rather than imports.
> I do have a subscription to the Economist
The Economist was pretty consistently writing deranged propaganda about Russia even 5 years ago so I really doubt you're getting accurate information from it now.
And most of it was made outside Russia anyways - e. g. they used Czechoslovak factories a lot because the quality was and is like from another dimension; our army refused Soviet tanks because of the shit quality and instead made our own based on the same design.
That was when they were "self-reliant" for decades. After the fall, they switched to globalized manufacturing completely. And now you're saying they will be able to switch back in months, with much worse economy and nobody willing to help them? I'm laughing very loudly.
I think you are seriously over-estimating what sanctions can do. Even if some Russian machines do explode, much harsher sanctions have routinely failed elsewhere. It'd be nice if this is all it took to end the war but it seems unrealistic to assume so.
Not anymore from what experts are writing, but only time will tell. Aircraft industry is a good example [1], as most planes operated in Russia require western maintenance parts that can’t easily be replaced.
Other examples are in gas and oil drilling equipment [2].
> The Economist was pretty consistently writing deranged propaganda about Russia even 5 years ago
You call warning about the danger of Russia invading neighboring countries driven by the ideological shift towards imperialism “propaganda”?
[1] https://www.frost.com/frost-perspectives/will-sanctions-from...
[2] https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/putin-admits-western-sancti...
What metrics do you use to determine 'working'? Can you provide a couple examples of sanctions working to provide peace?
How do the present sanctions on Russia help expedite Zelensky allowing "Minsk agreement" elections in eastern Ukraine (Luhansk and Donetsk)?
Most parts are able to be manufactured anywhere. Certainly, it is cheaper (generally) to buy the parts from the usual manufacturers. But supply and demand will cause those parts to start to be made, whether in Russia itself, or in China (more likely). If those parts start to get made more cheaply in China than the original 'western' parts, the western parts will eventually become uneconomic to make and be pushed out of the market.
Sanctions are generally a two-edged sword. There is pain caused to the sanctioned party in the short-term, but the sanctioning party more often finds itself damaged in the long-term by being shut out of its traditional markets when the sanctioned party starts buying things elsewhere.
> One aspect that wasn't covered was that a lot of Russian vehicles are fitted with cheap Chinese copies of off-road tyres which may be a significant contributor to the problems Russia is having and exacerbating the poor maintenance Trent talks about.
I can remember when it was Japanese stuff that was supposedly 'cheap and shoddy' but we all went out later and bought Mazda and Toyota cars and Canon cameras.
Then it was the Taiwanese stuff and today the whole world can't do without Taiwanese computer chips.
Then it was the Chinese stuff, and the same cycle. But the scene is changing. In the same way as I originally thought the Japanese stuff wasn't up to par and then bought a Mazda Rotary that I absolutely loved, I see that the Chinese Haval is not at all a bad SUV for the price.
These days it seems to be that it's Vietnam's turn to be going through the cycle. Starting off cheap, and then later moving up the value-added ladder.
History repeats. Products are made to a price. Just because we usually see the cheap Asian shit that our companies try to foist upon us doesn't mean those Asian countries can't produce high-quality stuff for themselves to use against us.
There was a cartoon from the 1940s that showed Bugs Bunny finger-flicking a Japanese battleship that then fell to pieces. That wasn't at all the actuality of what happened when the US Navy finally met the Japanese Navy in early 1942.
"Where does the rubbish in every country come from? Germany!"
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/brands-geographical...
United States > Germany > Japan > China
The US got its own start by copying and ripping off British IP in the early 1800s.Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, I guess no point buying USD and traveling somewhere.
I keep hearing stories how "in just a few months" everything is going to collapse and people will be starving. I doubt it, it's been two months, feels the same so far.
I guess nobody gave an F about Ukraine until now and all those mainstream media articles from 2014-2021 about nazism problem and anti-russian atrocities have gone ignored. Apparently, people had another pet cause to read about in those years.
>Apparently, people had another pet cause to read about in those years.
You mean they weren't literally at war, so they didn't take up as much of the spotlight?
wow, tough guy here :) I recommend you seek the truth over emotional highs. If you're not willing to do the work then be quiet - not for me but for your own good. FYI I wrote a two theses on the topic and read through tons of available material and defended both in front of a panel of people who served as ambassadors and are highly credible politologists, international lawyers, geopoliticists and I have zero investment in either side being right.
The extremist elements of Azov have long since been weeded out. And do you know where the word Azov comes from? Sea of Azov, ie. where Mariupol is. Have you seen pictures of what the Russians have done to Mariupol?
When Ukrainians are no longer being killed then we can talk about hurt feelings...
I'm literally advocating for an end to genocide...
And if that is truly your attitude, you don’t even have a consistent moral basis to claim that genocide is categorically wrong. By your logic, an entire nationality of people are collectively responsible for whatever their regime and military do. Since a hostile military can be justifiably killed, why not the civilian populace? I have an answer that question; do you?
Quote where I said Russians should be killed? No one's killing Russian civilians. I never said anyone should.
Russian media and leaders have said Ukraine should be wiped off the map. Mariupol is no longer a city. Tens of thousands of civilians murdered. Women raped. But people are being mean to Russians? You're literally whitewashing a genocide...
How about you say what the Russians are doing is wrong?
> I think that’s what a silent majority of reasonable people might think, but there is still a ton of indiscriminate anti-Russian bigotry going around.
And for further context, what is the stance that I think "a silent of majority of reasonable people" might think?
> The whole world does not hate Russians. On the contrary, I've seen a lot of empathy for Russians abroad and in Russia who do not support the invasion of and atrocities in the Ukraine but still have to suffer because of the Russian government's, or rather Vladimir Putin's, actions. Obviously, yes, Russians who express support for Putin are hated, rightfully so.
I have already condemned the actions of the Russian regime. That is not enough for you; you are not satisfied unless I hate the Russian people without distinction.
I have done nothing in this thread except to draw the moral distinction between the Russian regime and military and the Russian people as a whole, and to reiterate that it is morally unacceptable to hate, without any distinction, an entire nationality of people. You are the one who took up the mantle of defending bigotry; don't you dare claim the moral high ground.
Here in Canada Ukrainians have been attacked by Russian supporters; a Ukrainian priest and his family's home was set on fire. There's pro-Putin demonstrations in Germany.
There hasn't been any bigotry or violence directed towards Russians abroad yet you are taking up that cause like it's more important than the genocide against Ukrainians itself.
This is simply untrue:
https://www.fox5dc.com/news/russia-house-restaurant-vandaliz...
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/vandalism-at-russian-chur...
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/12/1086282867/a-russian-pianists...
Perhaps you are going to respond that none of this is equivalent to the atrocities committed by the Russian military. And you’d be right, in exactly the same sense that the indiscriminate internment of Japanese-Americans and Japanese-Canadians was not equivalent to the atrocities carried out by the Japanese military. My point here is that one still does not justify the other.
Are you fucking serious? Just admit you support genocide at this point...
[1] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/victoria-ars...
You haven't, this is the first time I've seen. Thanks for finally saying it.
> Why does it trigger you so much for me to point out that some people are, in fact, irrationally bigoted towards Russian people even when they have nothing to do with this war?
Because it's obvious you have more sympathy for hurt feelings than people who are actually being killed.
Funny enough, the Russian people I do know who are truly decent people aren't upset about anti-Russian feelings, they're truly sympathetic for the Ukrainian people, without having to try put the attention on themselves.
You haven't seen me say that I oppose indiscriminate hatred and retribution towards people on the basis of their nationality? I've repeated that in almost every single reply I've made to you.
> Because it's obvious you have more sympathy for hurt feelings than people who are actually being killed.
Don't pretend you know where my sympathies lie, especially when you don't even understand what I'm saying to you. If someone replied to me arguing that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was justified, I would argue with them. Instead, I got you and that Finnish guy both arguing that indiscriminate hatred of Russian people is justified.
> Funny enough, the Russian people I do know who are truly decent people aren't upset about anti-Russian feelings, they're truly sympathetic for the Ukrainian people, without having to try put the attention on themselves.
You said earlier that Russian people are "silent or tacitly supporting" the invasion, which justifies indiscriminate hatred towards Russian people. Which is it?
Many are, not all.
> which justifies indiscriminate hatred towards Russian people. Which is it?
Never said that, you imagined it. Just said there's more pressing issues than feelings.
You're pushing buttons here, and trying to bait this person into joining a downward spiral with you. Please stop, and find something better and healthier to do with your time.
Granted - they been hypnothized by putin's multi-billion dollar/yr propaganda machine but this is the result.
No it does not. Don't fall for Russia=Putin propaganda. Russia can do very well without him, much better so in fact. Average Russians are among those that suffer the most under that monstrous band of criminals that inhibits the Kremlin. The last thing that Mafia wants you to know is that in fact you don't need their protection at all.
> Approval ratings
Not true at all, friend. I really hope this will be over soon, and that we can all travel freely and visit each other again in the not-too-far future.
1. Russia produces 12% of the world's oil and has a similar share of global oil exports. [0] Those purchases are now being made in Rubels.[1] This was a direct retaliation to the USA and European sanction efforts. Before this oil was universally exchanged in USD or EUR. This has helped prop up the Rubel.
2. Russia moving back to a gold standard. [2] This is the single most interesting economic move in my opinion. Russia is continuing to buy more of the worlds gold supply. The Rubel is going to be pinned to the Gold standard. This makes the Rubel incredibly attractive as it can be a stable currency and easier to purchase than Gold itself. My personal feeling (contrary to most comments here) is that the sanctions have a terrible effect on the USA and Europe and have contributed to a world where China, India and Russia will be working to destabilize the USD and its allies. Moving away from the petrodollar, SWIFT and other USD centric methods is a very negative proposition for those of us who live in the west.
0. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Russia
1. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/business/putin-russian-oi...
2. https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4498704-russias-3-step-...
Edit: Spelling
The rouble is currently propped up by the dwindling currency reserves of the central bank and by the fact that you can't buy $/€/£ anywhere as a private citizen. The banks are out for the most part, the exchanges work with a giant commission and the supply of cash is just not there. You can exchange it virtually, but the rate is about 30% worse than the one advertised by the CB. This can't go on for much longer.
Not all countries are buying oil and gas in rubble, just the ones russia considers “unfriendly”. But even from those, russia isnt enforcing it. Germany has said it wouldn’t pay in ruble. US doesn’t buy anything from Russia. Hungary is paying in ruble.
By paying in ruble they create an artificial demand for the currency, making it worth more. However Russian government can make the same thing with the euro / dollars they receive from oil / gas purchase. The only reason they asked others pay in ruble is so they don’t have to do the conversion themselves because you know, with all the sanctions it is a pain to do it.
The price spikes in Russia didn’t go back after the currency stabilized, so regular Russians are still screwed
I’ve never seen anything about the gold standard thing, but even if it is true 1- gold price is also volatile and 2- there is a reason people moved away from gold standard
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/russian-oil-flows-but-incre...
“Germany has said it wouldn’t pay in ruble.“
True. Due to long term contracts in place, some oil is not purchased using rubles. Still, other European countries including Netherlands, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Greece and others are purchasing in rubles. Also, India and China are purchasing a large amount of oil. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/who-is-still-buying-...
“By paying in ruble they create an artificial demand for the currency, making it worth more.”
The demand is not artificial. The demand is the damn. Europe still imports 27% of oil from Russia.
“However Russian government can make the same thing with the euro / dollars they receive from oil / gas purchase. “
This is false. They cannot “do the same thing with the euro / dollars”.
“The only reason they asked others pay in ruble is so they don’t have to do the conversion themselves because you know, with all the sanctions it is a pain to do it.”
Again, false. They are deliberately increasing the value of the ruble.
“I’ve never seen anything about the gold standard thing”
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4498704-russias-3-step-...
I did a bored skim read through the linked article, but couldn't find any reference to " Netherlands, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Greece and others are purchasing in rubles" Do you have any other sources? Btw thanks for the link, interesting info
You can say what I am saying is false
I can say what you are saying is false
Sharing so you can learn a bit… https://youtu.be/_PwsU43S_Cs
I'd rather buy tether, or the latest crypto fad. It may be pegged to a gold amount, theoretically, but trying to get your gold out of Russia is the object of many jokes in my home country. Currencies are based on trust, and Russia will get out of this with maybe half a bucketfull of it left intact. I literally can't remember when they said anything not obvious and true.
Russia's GDP is about 5% that of the US and the EU combined. It's not big enough to "destabilise" anything. Brexit (loss of an economy 4x larger than Russia's) is not having a terrible effect on the EU.
Wannabe competitors to SWIFT are even smaller in relative size, and as for India and China working together on something for a long period of time... well, I think India wants to retain access to the developed world's economy.
Sure, Russia shutting off gas supplies to the EU would be inconvenient for a while, but it would be more than inconvenient for Russia.
By Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) the GDP of Russia (4,365,443 $MM) is larger than the GDP of UK (3,751,845 $MM) [1]. Stating that UK economy is 4x of Russia's does not seem to have a basic in reality.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
The Rubel can be just as easy "unpinned" from gold on any given day by a politician's decision and that's absolutely something you can expect from Russia.
Now they are finding themselves fighting a nation with a direct IV line from the US defense budget (similar to Israel) and that's not a winning position to be in given that the US alone is 10x defense spend - not even counting UK, the baltic states, etc.
Nope, it was to take Ukraine quickly and parade it as an internal trophy, while also taking out a possible big competitor for the oil and gas market.
Putin didn't want any concessions from the West, just business as usual. He wanted to be left alone to "digest Ukraine" and ponder next steps.
Edit: I'd want to hear proof for contrary opinions.
Why that was the case is indeed complex.
Russia did not try to negotiate Ukraine away initially. The messaging was clear: it's ours. Now they might negotiate something because Ukraine is kicking their teeth in, but that's after the fact and completely forced.
Like cutting the gas supply to the country itself to drop the transfer fees?
Typical.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/22/putin-...
Initial "peace proposals" from Russia included a rollback of NATO's military assistance to its 1997 condition, explicitly limiting the sovereignty of Poland and the Baltic states:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-...
It is, of course, absurd to think that Putin would have stopped at Ukraine's borders, if given a free hand (and a functioning army). He is a follower of Alexander Dugin's geopolitical school, in which Russia is the rightful caretaker of "Eurasian" civilization:
https://theconversation.com/alexander-dugin-eurasianism-and-...
How does your comment follow logically from this one?
"We'll occupy Ukraine and we'll keep occupying it and we want you to give us more!"
What kind of negotiation with Ukraine was that?
The rate may look similar, but it is against a backdrop of a significantly different and far worse economic environment, not least the use of reserves to prop the currency will have depleted their reserves.
Adam Tooze's Wages of Destruction is an incredible book if you're into economics.
If I learned one thing from this book, it's that central banks have a lot of tricks up their sleeves if the situation demands it.
I can tell you I have an asset worth 1e12 dollars but no one can buy it or sell it. This is kind of the same.
Similarly, I remember at one point there was almost 0 cases of COVID positives officially. But a huge spike in respiratory problems or other causes deaths for some reason.
The Soviet Union officially valued the ruble in the planned economy at an average of 0.74 руб per USD ... However, as the ruble was not internationally exchangeable and as Soviet citizens could not legally own foreign currency, rubles changed hands in the black market at an average of 4.14 руб per dollar in the same period
But if you want to buy US$1 you must pay from AR$150[1] to AR$200[2] or even more. There are a few methods and each one has different maximal amounts, delays, technical problem and level of legality.
[1] It's a very optimistic number, discounting a rebate that will get paid in may 2023, up to US$200 per month per person.
[2] Or even more, probably AR$215 or something.
The recent return to dolar azul after the brief period of the official rate actually being meaningful is very sad.
You have hit on, by the way, why Russia's equivalent to dolar azul is not so different from the official rate. You and any other Argentinean can, with US dollars, buy things from/travel to abroad. As spaceheater said, "Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, I guess no point buying USD and traveling somewhere".
In some senses, it is difficult to see why a sanctions attack against Russia would damage their currency that much. The fundamentals are still much the same. I still bought US products after Iraq and I'd still buy Russian products after Ukraine. I imagine most of the world feels similar. There are even some hints that parts of Europe feel that way.
Although, because I'm something of a gold bug, there are some unreliable claims they've re-introduced the gold standard (https://theconversation.com/why-russia-has-put-the-rouble-on...). That is an interesting thing that happened on the way through.
Good to announce your cheerful complicity in mass murder on here so we know not to take you seriously.
> I still bought US products after Iraq
Which I suspect is true for yourself as well, although I have no means to verify it.
It is true for most of the world though.
Let's look at all the other mass murders committed by the US and their allies and stop buying goods from them too, shall we?
And before the "whataboutism" flame war starts, I don't care. It's not whataboutism when you're specifically stating (implicitly or otherwise) that one is fine and the other is not.
I'm not complicit in anything. That is war fever talking saying there is anything here to support. I just want to see peace and prosperity, which sanctions do not achieve.
> Good to announce your cheerful complicity in mass murder on here so we know not to take you seriously.
I attended a critical-thinking and logical reasoning class in University back in the day, and I'm trying to see what all logical fallacies you have committed (I'm not very good at this):
1. Non sequitur [1]? Because I don't really see how buying a Russian product supports mass murder.
And I think you have committed it again, because your conclusion that if somebody supports mass murder, then they shouldn't be taken seriously, is questionable.
I mean, for example, should the leader of Russia (think about their stand on mass murder) be taken seriously?
(I might also argue you committed the hasty generalization [3] fallacy here).
2. Cherry picking [2], because in the clause you quoted, you conveniently chose to omit the earlier clause of that same sentence.
3. Sweeping generalization [4], because you implicitly assume all Russians support mass murder.
4. Straw man fallacy [5]. You're not even addressing anything the parent commenter actually said.
5. False dilemma? [6]. I'm not too sure about this one, but I feel you're implicitly saying that because the parent commenter buys Russian products they must be supporting mass murder.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formal_fallacy
[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking
[3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faulty_generalization
[4] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secundum_quid
They have some money, but nobody will sell to them. Slightly different situation from their money being worthless because they're outspending their ability to earn hard currency.
The self anointed "international community" is only a very small fraction of the actual world. This is typical western hubris and arrogance thinking that everyone will blindly follow them and those who don't, will powerlessly suffer the consequences of the wrath of the west. Russia has money, the world loves money, the world will sell to Russia. Not only that, but there's no shortage of western corporations busy trying to find ways to covertly sell to Russia because that's what they've done to every other pariah state. Russia will incur higher costs to acquire the things it wants but it will still be able to get them and it will often be western companies covertly doing the selling.
judging by Western MSM you see here in Europe you would think everyone in world sanctioned evil Russia while opposite is true
Yes, I think this is the key.
The difference between Russia and Argentina (where gus_massa is) is that in the latter, anyone with US dollars can buy things from/travel to abroad. Thus there is meaningful demand for dollars that contrary to the "official" exchange rate, appears in the unofficial "dolar azul" rate.
By contrast, as spaceheater said, "Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, I guess no point buying USD and traveling somewhere".
https://www.infobae.com/economia/2022/03/03/el-gobierno-flex...
[0] https://www.ft.com/content/d7baedc7-c3b2-4fa4-b8fc-6a634bea7...
Who is buying and selling roubles? Yes, there are apparently some transactions, since there is a price, but it’s hardly a market controlled by supply-demand.
Russian exports have always been priced in USD or other foreign currencies; Russian companies don’t want to get roubles, it seems.
Similarly, with imports, companies probably need to pay in whatever non-rouble way possible, I can’t imagine any serious exporter would take roubles.
Companies receiving foreign currency are forced to exchange them immediately to roubles according to a central bank’s rate.
It’s a theatre, not a market, and so the price is mostly anything.
Obviously that won't work, long term.
Yes, just raising rates to a high enough level is enough. This is macroeconomic policy 101. It will seriously deflate the Russian economy, recent World Bank projections are for a -11% GDP drop (Ukraine: -40% drop). That's a very severe recession. You can always defend a currency at the expense of jobs, it was done in the US too, by Paul Volcker.
It's macroeconomic policy 101, tested many times throughout history in various countries, both positively (when you do this then inflation/depreciation stops) and negatively (when you don't do this then inflation/depreciation continues).
There are many unanswered question in macroeconomics, but this isn't one of them.
Edit: Watch this video for more info: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SjvimH42po
[1]Turkish-Iranian gold trader's ‘Beautiful Mind’ testimony drove U.S. sanctions case:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-gold-turkey-iran-scheme-e...
So, the price can be any when you don’t have a free market. In USSR, the official exchange rate was 0,7 rouble per dollar. Black market was 2-3 (might differ, depending on the year, of course).
Recently I have seen photo with X-rates in moscow: USD buying at 70, selling at 300 EUR buying at 80, selling at 100 Looks silly, right? Everyone knows EUR costs more than USD. The reason is the same as in the anecdote above.
Makes you think about the inherent subjectivity of certain words.
true. I can't access my wallet that was robbed from me
Grow a pair: Lift the ban on domestic exploration. Open the floodgates from other countries. People's are dying over cheap gas.
And long term we want to reduce fossil fuel production.
If you own Russian bonds or stocks outside of Russia, you used to get paid in hard currency. You now get paid in rubles. So suddenly the government and major companies no longer need hard currencies. Individual citizens can no longer convert rubles to hard currency. So, a lot less demand.
Meanwhile, the Russian government still has hard currency reserves and gas/oil they can use to buy rubles. Since someone still wants to buy rubles, and there isn't a group that needs/wants/is allowed to sell them, the price is going up.
obviously this can’t go in forever and this is just a crutch
How can you value something that is not transacting? The published “worth” of the ruble seems like a fiction.
1. Russian anticipated the sanctions - this isn't the first time - so Russian had some plans in place. They've been dumping US Fed Treasuries and hoarding gold. That's part of removing USD dependence.
2. Russian has plenty of internal resources with plenty of industry to replace enough (not all) of the sanctioned imports.
3. Russians support Putin at nearly 80%. Sanctions have electrified Russian patriotism. A funny set of Tweets are Russian women tearing up the expensive Coco Chanel products. That's thousands of USD worth torn up because patriotism.
4. Russian has the EU by the balls because Green Energy doesn't and won't replace the Russian exports of oil and nat gas; compounding that is Germany shutting down nuclear power plants exactly when they can least afford it. The next play: demanding payment of the same oil and gas in Rubles rather than USD. The assumption that the USD is supreme is wrong and provably so now with the Ruble rebound.
5. Russian has plenty of allies who leak past the sanctions - like 2/3rds of the world's countries by population - it's LITERALLY only the West who is sanctioning. This is akin to how Cuba was/is embargoed ONLY by the US but not Canada or Mexico.
6. By doubling down on sanctions the US has primarily weakened the Petrodollar which is the ONLY REASON the USD is as strong as it is and the only reason we have the lifestyle levels we have today despite having very low economic production - we'd be closer to Portugal in effective economic strength without having USD reserve currency status. It's a subsidy that has made and still makes us super lazy and entitled.
6a. The US is still living in the delusion of being unipolar and "indispensable". That is no longer reality and sanctions accelerated the move to multipolar.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/31/why-is-t...
Behind a paywall but if you turn JavaScript off you can read it for free
We'll know when the funds run out, it's a expensive task to keep it inflated.
tl;dr: Russia is propping up the Ruble with all the means at their disposal
Russia, and perhaps even more China, simply have done without saying a new Bretton Wood where instead of electing a currency the one for anything, a currency based on thin air, handled by a private cleptocratic company remaining in power thanks to propaganda and the army power, they propose one based on something tangible like natural resources and industrial power. Other countries have started to join (like Saudi Arabia, Israel and partially EU so far, the first two accepting renmimbi for oilm tge last for accepting paying Russian gas in rubles) and others "ante litteram" have already tested that and was crushed (like Saddam's Iraq with oil in euros vs dollar, just before Iraqi invasion by the USA or Qaddafi's Libya against the Paris controlled CFA designing a new local pan-African currency).
In the past the west have had the biggest world power in tech, industry, military, science etc than all those start to wane crushed by an economically-driven society. EU lost its place from WWI, USA gain back than and thanks to WWII establish a global power but now de-industrialization, new cyclic big crisis typical of all neoliberals models, with no one left to invade and steal big resources, internal populations reactions (strikes, social unrest, scandals etc) and the growth of big enough superpower, one industrial (China) and one in natural resources terms (Russia) have made the change. Neoliberals need a war to remain in power but they lost such war even before it's start. So countries with neoliberals dominance and their currencies (dollar, sterling and euro) decline while new affirming powers rise. Not that much just because China have an extremely deep food problem: they can't nourish it's own people and their industrial system is still to lean toward export for the west, Russia have natural resources, but it's not anymore Soviet Union, it's economy is in a terrible shape and the need of China for mass production is a big vulnerability. But still enough to make the ruble rise and stabilize.
EU have admitted, while informally/in actions not words, that no solution exists to makes a real embargo on Russian resources, we have started to buy gas in ruble [1] oil is still exchanged [2] with tricks, we still need aluminum, palladium, titanium, ... from Russia etc. Nothing can be done quickly and effectively. Neoliberals have clearly pictured how powerless they are [3] like believers who say "to solve any issue we pry the god of the market that by market magic it will solve our crisis". So Russia know well that like the Korean war no compact front will exists against them. USA know fully well they haven't anymore an industrial complex sufficient to get rid of China quickly and UK know fully well they do not have anymore an empire, they can just hope for USA help in exchange of Commonwealth natural resources witch aren't really much under UK control anymore. On the other side the above described issues impede a quick win so we are there faltering a bit.
The first winner anyway is China: they get Russia, so the biggest reservoir of natural resources and probably high tech Russians military tech they equally need. USA have re-win EU, at least until EU Citizens will revolt against our corrupted government that act against our interest for some third party that prove countless time being no friend of us. So they are the II winner. Others are just looser. Many new movement will happen for India, the Gulf, Iran, Myanmar etc that will surely try to earn something in the game and while "marginal" just by their size and resources they are contended and contenders. That's is. The Rand idea to weaken Russia [4] works at a so high price that dollar can't win. The actual WWIII will probably see no real winner, but probably the least looser will be eastern-shifted and currencies start to reflect that a bit.
[1] https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/world-int/21419-european-commis...
[2] https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-russia-avoids-oil-sanctio...
[3] https://voxeu.org/article/how-solve-europe-s-russian-gas-con...
[4] https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/R...
In terms of switch between liberalism->keynesianism->neoliberalism honestly I do see much of substantial change in élites terms: liberalism have made very few very rich and create a big mess. Those behind this school of though just want to protect their fortune and so they push another school of though, keynesianism, witch formally is a radical change, but in practice is the old game of the two horses [1]: when their cleptocratic system collapse and people start to move around a potential revolution (Socialism) they just pushed some who "do the right thing" witch actually was a way to save failed private corp with public resources. Some of the puppet colonize socialism to transform it in a red fascism, some create nazi-fascism. Both disperse/degenerate the "new" socialism. Keynesianism alone was not sufficient but generate enough economy to face a war and overthrown the table to start a new game. That new game is neoliberalism witch pick some aspect of false socialism with classic liberism. Now we are in a similar situation: neoliberalism have reached it's cyclic crisis, people unrest, unionize, protest, we are heading to a rush of civil wars, so it's about time to overthought the table again, an external war silence potential civil wars and justify the crisis, the urgency justify a kind-of new keynesianism, witch is now the Chinese system, a false socialism again.
It might be a bit hard to condense in a post, but if you skim-re-read the late '800 till today economic history seeing how it touch the politics all brick will enter in their right place...
[1] to being sure to win in politics you run two puppet-horses (a system party and an anti-system one), apparently completely different, one against the other, in practice being from the same puppet-master they just intercept discomfort created by the previous government generate an alternation of powers who impede the ascension of third party parties.
> We said it right back in February, that it was economic “shock and awe” [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_and_awe], financial “shock and awe”, you sieze the assets of the Central Bank (at least half of them), you sanction the Central Bank so that they can’t operate with contacts with other Central Banks.
> The expectation was, and this is indisputable, because the briefing notes are all there, they’re still up there on the White House website, that that would mean that the Central Bank would not be able to support the Ruble, the Ruble would then go into freefall, that was what was said, Biden subsequently talked about it, you know, the Ruble becoming rubble, 200 Rubles to the Dollar, all that sort of thing, and of course it did not turn out that way at all.
> And the reason it did not turn out that way at all, is because Nabiullina [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elvira_Nabiullina] did her job as governor of the Central Bank, and prevented it from happening.
> She raised interest rates, I know this is controversial with some people, but I think as an emergency reaction that was absolutely the correct thing to do, she provided the necessary liquidity to the financial system, she made sure that the financial system was operating properly, and she held it all together. And she proved herself to be, this year, an extremely effective financial crisis manager.
> So we have a very stable situation with the Ruble. In fact, the problem with the Ruble at the moment is that the Ruble shows signs of appreciating too quickly. There is a massive amount of cash, of foreign currency swishing around the Russian economy, as Euros and Dollars pour into Russia from Russian energy sales.
> The Russians are prevented now from importing many goods, and of course they are afraid to take this money out and put it in foreign accounts because if they do, it could easily be stolen. So all of this money is piling up in Russia, and there are comments, some members of the government are saying, you know, we should convert it all into Rubles, others are saying, if we convert it all into Rubles that would make the Ruble too strong, it could go to 50, 60 Rubles to the Dollar, and that would not be good for the underlaying competitiveness of our economy.
> [...] and of course the other problem she has is that because of the massive, orchestrated pull-out of Western companies from Russia there are now gaps appearing in the Russian consumer market, there are problems in supply chains for Russian companies, and that is causing a fall in production. And that in turn, is leading into higher inflation within Russia itself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgTcha5-Pj0&t=202s
Alternative: https://rumble.com/v11paoj-nabiullina-and-putin-discuss-the-...
https://tomluongo.me/2022/03/28/got-gold-rubles-russia-just-...