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Comment by gordon_freeman | Hacker News Reader

Let's ignore their Russian subscribers loss for the time being. Analysts were expecting them to add 2.7m and they added 500K elsewhere (taking the number from your comment) so they are still way off and it proves that their growth is slowing at a rapid pace because of increasing competition from Apple, Amazon, Disney and HBO.

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> taking the number from your comment

From the article, fyi.

> slowing at a rapid pace because of increasing competition from Apple, Amazon, Disney and HBO.

I don't doubt that but I do suspect other services will see some slow down too as a result of general bullshit and uncertainty in the economy. It's never really just one thing.

Then again...yeah Disney+ is a really good deal. And Amazon's numbers are inflated from other Prime stuff. I'm just an old man yelling at a screen from his arm chair because I can't trust anyone.

"slowing at a rapid pace" makes no sense as a statement. Is their growth stalled?

How can anything slow at a rapid pace?

Second derivative is negative

Imagine a car slamming on anti lock brakes versus one coasting to a stop.

> How can anything slow at a rapid pace?

Rapid deceleration. Just because a car is still moving, doesn't mean it's moving as fast as it was 1 second ago.

I think in this case it’s supposedly still accelerating but you are depressed the gas and the engine is spooling back down to idle. I think the term is Jerk

The other services are not charging a premium just for 4K, are not bundling 4K with 4 screens and have content that competes/beats Netflix's. They also haven't saturated the markets so you will not see them slowing down yet.

I predict Netflix will change two things business wise: 1. Ads. 2. No content dumps, instead 1 episode/week.

The day Netflix has ads is the day I unsubscribe. The price, here in Canada at least, has already doubled since I first subscribed and is getting close to a cable subscription.

Ads and high price is why everyone cut the cable in the first place. (And poor content)

It depends on how they implement it. The CEO said he was open to lower-priced tiers with ad support. I wouldn't mind an ad before each show if it meant a lower price. But if they raise the ad-free prices or start putting ads in during the shows, people will be more upset.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/netflixs-ceo-says-hes-...

How much more growth can Netflix really muster? They really have penetrated most regions including APAC. Adding 500k is a major accomplishment when viewed thru that lens.

> Netflix previously told shareholders it expected to add 2.5 million net subscribers during the first quarter.

It wasn't just the analysts. Netflix itself missed big in their forecast.

I’m curious as to when the forecast is from. We missed our expected q1 target by quite a margin as well because the market, and I mean any market, has been hit by the war and the inflation.

Would Netflix subscriptions really be impacted due to the war? Aside from a handful of countries that are bearing the brunt of the conflict and sanctions.

>because of increasing competition from Apple, Amazon, Disney and HBO.

because of increased fragmentation, torrents are becoming a big competitor again?

That’s exactly what I expect in about 3-5 years. I particularly have my eye on BitTorrent modifications like webtorrent which may get the viewing experience even closer to a paid streaming service.

In my household they certainly are.

I'm already paying for Netflix, Amazon Prime, and HBO Max. Sharing those with friends, and receiving Disney+ and Hulu in return. We're back to where we started, with everything dashed across a bunch of different 'networks', and I left entirely because of the steep cable bill.

Like hell I'm going to add even more services, like AppleTV or Paramount+.

I'd say IPTV.

Torrents are too complicated for most people, compared to the ease of buying an 'Android TV box' at a cell phone store, Craiglist or flea market, and paying $15/month for cable channels and TV/movie streaming. The UI is relatively good, worlds apart from the 2010 era when finding shows and episodes required going through a list of gorillavid.com links.

yes, but how does IPTV get their content? It's piracy all the way down.

All SVOD services are down this quarter, Disney+ arguably hardest hit, root cause is cost of living increases.

To your point, Apple's market share: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30940431

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