People are very bad at predicting true change in the fundamentals of how they live their lives and then dealing with the implications of that. We've been lulled into the myth of a steady-state economy by the post-WW2 Pax Americana. If that's your model, any rapid change is a "bubble" that's going to pop and return us to our original steady state, and real lasting change is consistently undervalued.

Here's a pop quiz with a counterintuitive answer: if Bitcoin succeeds at replacing the dollar as both the world reserve currency and the currency of choice for everyday transactions, what's its fair market value? Most optimists would divide total dollar supply ($21T) by total Bitcoin supply ($21M) and come out with $1M. But the true answer is infinite: if this scenario actually comes to pass, the dollar's value will trend to zero and the question will become meaningless, as you won't be able to trade your dollars for Bitcoin at any price.

So it is with tech: software is actively replacing many core industries, which sends their value to zero and the owners of their software replacements to effectively infinity.

I suspect similar dynamics are at play with prices in general and particularly asset & housing prices. Everybody's calling a bubble and thinking they'll buy stuff later when prices come down. That can happen in localized instances (like lumber last summer), but oftentimes those bubble bursts reverse themselves and end up driving higher. Lumber went up by 250% again in the second half of last year, just as tech company stocks have reached heights that were unimaginable in the dot-com boom. The overall price level in the economy isn't going down.