If Twitter was worth more, it'd be worth more.
With that logic, you should put a huge chunk of your savings into Twitter to benefit from the insight, as it's currently trading at 39% below its 52-week high.
I have not bought TWTR.
As legitimate as it is to believe that the stock price will never again reach $54.
Then it should be priced for discounted future cash flow and value.
The stock price today represents what investors think the future value might be. The speculation that the dip will bounce back is built into today's price.
The reduced price over the high represents the perceived risk that it won't return.
Musk values the stock higher than the mean investor.
If you bought a $100k home which then dipped to $80k during Covid, would you accept an unsolicited bid of $90k?
It's reasonable for some people to take the bid, since you could arguably buy another comparable house for $80k and pocket the $10k difference, but I think a lot of other people would reasonably choose not to.
(I'm not totally sure if this logic scales to board rooms / billions of dollars, but curious to hear thoughts.)
I own several stocks that have dropped in the last few months. If someone offered me a 20% premium to sell them today, I would do so in a heartbeat. I would even do so if it meant the company would go private and I couldn't buy that stock again.
In that case I would be terrified as a board member, I've basically lost about $15bn of shareholder value for my shareholders.