I was born in California and lived there for much of my life, including living and working in San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
Downtime can happen but if a freelancer experiences frequent or prolonged downtime that’s their own failure to cultivate multiple customers, long-term relationships, reputation, and a funnel of work. Of course customers may cancel a project or hire someone else, but a freelancer who pays attention and has a relationship with their customer beyond sending invoices will have some notice of that happening. Personally I have not had downtime as a freelancer for at least 15 years.
$500/hr is full-time equivalent of $1 million/year, far above the average or necessary living wage for Santa Clara county (just over $50k/year, or $25/hr full-time)[1]. Across the US freelance programming and system admin rates range from about $50/hr to $250/hr, with some outliers at either end [2]. Very few freelancers are making $300+/hr consistently, though I know some do because they have very specialized skills, solid reputations, and can keep their funnel primed. Rates are higher for Silicon Valley/SF/LA (and NYC) but not 10X higher. And as a freelancer you don’t have to live where your customers are, so I can work for companies in SF or Chicago or Silicon Valley and live in a cheaper city, or not in the US at all.
You certainly can sustain a living anywhere in the US for as little as $60/hr, which is $120k/year full-time equivalent, well above the living wage for any American city including Santa Clara county. That’s the low-end, though. Most freelancers I know, and I’ll include myself, charge $150 to $250/hr and get that consistently from US customers for 30-40 hrs/week. That’s more than enough to live comfortably wherever I want.
The key to consistent income as a freelancer is not jacking up rates to account for downtime, but not having downtime in the first place. The best way to avoid downtime is to build long-term relationships with customers so replacing you (because you’re crazy expensive) doesn’t come into their thinking. Charging a little more than they would have to pay a f/t employee is the sweet spot. I have freelanced for customers for over a decade, at very good rates, because they can’t hire a f/t equivalent for any number of reasons.
Here’s the big secret of successful freelancing. Don’t build your freelancing practice around constant churn with short-term projects. That keeps you in perpetual search/sales mode, which you don’t get paid for, and prevents establishing long-term relationships with customers. Instead build your practice on retainer arrangements with a few steady customers, where you add sufficient value and the customer has a predictable fixed monthly cost. Customers always prefer predictable fixed costs over unpredictable invoices, and they always prefer someone committed to their business over someone who wanders from gig to gig looking for the best rate.
[1] https://livingwage.mit.edu/counties/06085
[2] https://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/los-angeles-freelance-sal...