https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-...
Here we can see the price of oil futures going back a few years. We can see they start an upward trend once Biden gets into office. and long before the Ukraine conflict.
There are two parts of this, what Biden has done, and what people fear he might do.
There is a trade off between using goods now, and using them later. The higher the return for using them later, the higher the return for using them now has to be in order to justify consuming it.
If Biden says, no more drilling on public land, you are right, that would not impact supply immediately, but it would impact the expected supply and price of oil in the future. Which means that in order for the oil to be consumed now, the price has to be higher.
If you add to that the expected regulations to come in the future, further restricting or taxing fossil fuel use, it pushes this even higher.
So because it is expected that the price of oil will be more expensive in the future, both because of what Biden has done already, and because of what he has promised to do, then the price of oil has to increase now. Do you understand what I'm trying to convey?
FURTHER EXPLANATION
Let's say you have 10 barrels of oil to sell. You can sell those barrels now for $100 dollars, or you can sell them in a year for $200 dollars.
The more the price of oil in the future increases, so too does your incentive to wait to sell.
In response to this, the price of oil has to increase in the present, to compete with the prices promised in the future.
So if the future price rises to $250, the present price might increase to $130 in order to incentivize producers to sell now, rather than wait for higher returns in the future.
What Biden has done is send signals that in the future, the supply of oil will be lower, and the price higher, which incentivizes producers to wait for those higher returns, which as a result increases the prices now, in order to compete.