That demographic advantage was twenty years ago. Today China has a terrible demographic structure—more old people than young people and a fertility rate well below replacement level. The One Child policy worked too well. And yes, much of the Western world has the same problem, but two notable exceptions are the United States and Mexico. We'll end up there eventually, but we've got some time.

I don't think all manufacturing will come back to the US. Much of it will go to South-East Asia and India as we're seeing in the article. And a bunch will surely end up in Mexico, which has lots of young people and an obvious geographical advantage.

But regardless of where they go, Apple really, really has to get out of China as quickly as possible. There are a lot of cracks showing in the Chinese system, and things could fall apart there very quickly. The demographics alone are staggering - the Chinese population could fall by half in the next 30 years, and the effects will be felt long before then.