Why reach for what-if scenario. Finland and Sweden already have an example of a country that did not join NATO and see the consequences of it.
and either way, there is nothing at all that Ukraine did that justifies the murder and rape of thousands of civilians including children. Russia has forfeit their place on the stage to be treated as a rational actor. At this point its like saying all you need to do is not purchase a firearm to provoke your serial killer neighbor.
Not a great example dude. Everyone eventually hits the "Poland" moment, where you can't keep appeasing a dictator.