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Comment by mxwsn | Hacker News Reader

I hate to be that person, but after reading all 7 posts I am starting to question if this is fake.

I saw a family member go from diagnosis to death from stage 4 cancer and several things just feel off to me. The timeline of the posts, with an initial expected death by end of April, then extended to next winter then a sudden "routine scan" that brings to back to end of April feels odd to me. Her energy to travel, sleep without meaningful heating in a van during the winter, deal with a van that keeps breaking down, and generally be active is also confusing to me. And the feel good writing, over 7 posts, starts to feel repetitively vague.

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> I saw a family member go from diagnosis to death from stage 4 cancer and several things just feel off to me. The timeline of the posts, with an initial expected death by end of April, then extended to next winter then a sudden "routine scan" that brings to back to end of April feels odd to me.

That is not odd at all.

You start off with a rough estimate based on the survival rates of other people with the same or similar diagnosis.

That's your first expected date. You start planning around it. (In her case, planning active measures to end her life while she could.)

Then you outlive it -- because after all, a median date implies people do outlive it. And that actually gives you hope and purpose which allows you less pain and perhaps even fewer symptoms.

And then a scan brings you right back to the median again, or much less.

Because the cancer isn't the diagnosis, or the scans. There are loads of other unseen variables.

This story repeats again and again; very few people die the way or when they expect to. A lot of people go suddenly after a long time of inexorable progress, some from secondary disease that can sometimes be avoided, and other people rally and then fade.

Indeed.

My SIL was diagnosed with MM. At that time, the life expectancy was 6 mo - 2 years. And then thanks to being at the right place at the right time, she went into 5 separate clinical trials and lived 10 years. But then very suddenly, it returned and she was dead in a matter of weeks.

I wrote this quickly while I was trying to think back through the way I lost a relative to cancer, and I suppose this brief bit kind of makes no sense because it sounds non-linear:

"And then a scan brings you right back to the median again, or much less."

What I meant here is that the first diagnosis is not the last. Once you start doing well, other treatments become possible that weren't possible without extra evidence or without some remission. And they give you hope -- they extend where you think you'll get to; which life events you will see. You might get to a kind of remission that surprises even the doctors; they try to help you understand how long you might now have.

But parts of this are like Monty Hall -- some of the probabilities are new, but some are from the original diagnosis all the same.

The diagnosis isn't the cancer, and the lump of cancer they are watching might not be the offshoot that does the final damage.

I'd hate to be that person too. This is how cancer progression can go. Friend went from 'years' to 'months' to 'days' in the space of a few weeks. The last bit went by so fast that I missed out on saying goodbye because he was already too far gone, we'd been on the phone a week and a bit prior to that and he was as good as could be given the prognosis.

Yep. Relative had surgery and was told it was at least buying a few months. Few days later, sorry no it’s growing very fast. 10 days later dead.

By contrast it took several years to kill my mother. Even the last days were long and protracted.

There seems to be a wide range of patterns as far as my own experience goes.

My father died from a glioblastoma multiforme. Median survival length for a glio is 11 months. He was diagnosed September of 2010. My father was in his late 50s, lifetime smoker, not particularly amazing or poor health before the diagnosis. He had surgery, chemo, radiotherapy. He died in March 2015. During that time he had occasional seizures and memory issues, but no progressive physical symptoms. We went to concerts while he was sick. He traveled. Other than the memory issues nothing was impairing his life.

The first sign anything went wrong at the end was a routine scan showing a small amount of growth 2 weeks before his death. The second sign anything was wrong was a phone call I got on a Friday where his speech seemed very tired. On Monday I got a phone call saying to fly home. He was awake but not especially alert when I got there. He died on Thursday or Friday.

So all that to echo that the trajectory of this person's illness is believable, whether or not the story is ultimately true.

My father also died from glioblastoma multiforme, diagnosis early May of '16. First sign anything was wrong at all was double vision, shortly after diagnosis he lost balance and quickly become wheel chair and then bed bound, his personality pretty much evaporated and he never was 'himself' again. He died less than three months later due to pneumonia he was unable to fight from taking chemotherapy. Early 60s, good general health though somewhat obese, never smoked or drank.

The doctors told us they had never had a GBM patient deteriorate that quickly. Watching somebody perish from pneumonia put it pretty close to the top of the list of ways I don't want to go.

In any case this is also to say that we don't want to make too many assumptions about whether a case is real just based on timelines. People can either blow right pass the timeline, line up with it, or perish very early.

My father died recently from sudden illness at a really very advanced age -- with some problems from dementia that never really got to the worst possible. I lost my mother to one of the worst cancers possible when I was much younger (again suddenly but in the process of a long terminal diagnosis).

So I half want to upvote you both for the points you're making about variable, unpredictable survival times after diagnosis, and half want to hug you both in sympathy for the way you lost your fathers. That must have been rough and I hope you have found the support you needed.

Likewise, it doesn't sound like you had an easy time of it yourself.

Cancer is so variable. A friend of ours realised they were ill because their half-marathon time (which would have had a heart attack trying to hit) was way worse than expected. He was dead about two months later. Like your freind he went from looking "a bit peeky" but still going on cycle rides, to being barely able to talk in the space of a few weeks.

He and his wife are planning all the things they would do in early retirement. His death taught me an important lesson about not waiting too long to do the things you really want to do with the people you really want to be with.

Another of my wife's friend has been suffering from a cancer that was expected to kill her about two years ago but she just keeps going and surprising everyone. Cancer can be so damn capricious.

Not sure if involved. But Medication can wipe a person out. I’ve been on a few (not cancer) that left me in bed barely able to speak for weeks on end. Skip a couple doses and I’m about and fine.

I knew a man in Australia. A really crude guy, but also very sweet and kind. My friends and i met him in 2007, and he drove us around in his classic convertible Cadillac. We learned he had been told he had about 6 months until cancer would kill him. I met him again in 2009, and he seemed about the same, with his oily black hair down to his shoulders. He shared his expensive wine cellar with me and my friends, and drove a dozen of us to the bar in the back of his box van. He still had a 6 month prognosis. I met him again in 2011, and he was bald. He had sold all of his classic cars, and he said the doctors were pretty serious about the 6 months that time. I haven't been back to Australia since, but presumably he's passed on.

Yeah, it happens. My uncle had stage IV “you’ve got about six weeks” bowel cancer for 15 years. It got him in the end - his kids grew up with “dad is going to die soon” for their entire lives to date. Not easy.

Friend of mine's dad had 6 months to live, for 12 years. Same deal. Leukemia eventually got him.

> "he drove us around in his classic convertible Cadillac"

/checks username/... of course it's you :)

I only met him in 2009 and didn't not interact with him much... I remember mostly that car, and that he was happy to trade my US$ for AUS$ (daughter was making a trip to the US soon?), thereby solving my "how do I find time to do currency exchange" on that trip!

Lol, nice catch. I really do wonder about Steve's fate.

I'm prepping for the upcoming ASC event in July, as a scrutineer though. 1 week of solar car racing once a year is just the right amount. :-)

> My flight to [undisclosed sensible European country]

It's not the scan that brings it back to the end of April - she's planning euthanasia.

Right.

"I’m planning a little road trip through some of Europe, given I seem to have been gifted more than my allotted time. I’m thinking ferry across to France, drive through Belgium, Luxembourg, and maybe Germany, and then finishing in Switzerland. Yes, finishing."

From the 6th post.

Ah, ok, that explains the bit about not wanting her relatives to be prosecuted in the UK. Why can't we just let the dying die their own way?

> The timeline of the posts, with an initial expected death by end of April, then extended to next winter then a sudden "routine scan" that brings to back to end of April feels odd to me.

It feels like an odd timeline on one hand but is also all too familiar in the context of cancer — uncertain prognosis followed by respites of hope dashed again without warning.

He's planning euthanasia, he just want to do it before cancer gets him, so yeah if doctors suddenly says "you have couple weeks left" then it's either now or cancer will get him first

she

I was struck more by other inconsistencies; I can believe the changing prognosis.

She talks about losing her hair and getting a wig (although something about that wig selfie looks off), but then can be seen in the last post in multiple photos video and a with natural hair that can't possibly have grown that long since December.

She says she is homeless, and at one point has to sleep in a tent, but also says she has family in the UK (Grandparents are mentioned specifically).

One picture shows a bed in the van that was acquired from and returned to a charity shop, and being replaced but a wooden platform, but no such platform appears in any subsequent photos of the van interior.

Not having enough money for fuel or vehicle repairs, but having enough to pay for assisted end of life. (Perhaps that was always being kept in reserve).

And other little things. So I have no idea. Maybe it's all true, and I'm seeing things that aren't there, as I don't know why someone would go to the trouble of making all or part of this up.

I agree that the wig selfie is processed in some way that makes it appear fake, but I think the hair pictures aren't necessarily inconsistent. She may have only lost chunks of hair rather than all of her hair, which seems sort of consistent with the swimming picture in the last post. The other hair picture further down on the last post looks like a wig to me.

Pictures may not have been supplied chronologically.

Seriously: the number of people that can be counted on to should 'fake' at any kind of story that is outside of their personal experience is a bit tiring.

Keep in mind that absolutely nobody has anything to gain by being found out to be 'the girl that faked having cancer' with their face and half their life's story out for the whole world to relate to. That doesn't mean fakes do not happen, but what it does mean is that absent hard evidence shouting 'fake' is just another low brow dismissal.

And there is plenty of evidence that proves that it is a real story, including hospital pictures, pictures of the vehicle, pictures of her in happier times and so on. Skepticism is fine but let's not overdo it.

should->shout

Some of us read every post, top to bottom, end to end, including those missing from the chronology. You decided to refute any criticism, clearly without taking the time to read even one of the original posts.

You didn't even bother to read the post you responded to, or you'd realise it was essentially supporting your uninformed position. You have a made a name for yourself by being vocal, but it takes more than that. Step up or step out.

I assumed the pictures and video was from a time "before".

Stage 4 means cancer has spread to multiple organs.

But all cancers are not the same.

For example Lance Armstrong had stage 4 testicular cancer that spread to his brain in 1996.

Then won all those bicycle races.

One thing often not mentioned in stories about Lance Armstrong is that he didn't go to a doctor until he was coughing up blood. This was despite having symptoms for quite some time. He mentions this quite clearly in his autobiography.

In other words, had he gone to a doctor earlier, it's quite possible he would have had a "routine" testicular cancer diagnosis with a much better prognosis and recovery.

I mention this because testicular cancer is more common than most people recognize and his story should be more a testament to "get checked early and often" vs "look at the power of the human spirit!".

I'd vote this up to the top if I could - this is all so very true. I'm a testicular cancer survivor myself, and I did the self exams and caught it early.

Caught at its earliest, testicular cancer is basically curable with a 99% 5 year relative survival rate. Even if you catch it early-ish, you're still looking at 96%. The odds take a big dive to 73% once it spreads. [1]

The self-exam is exceedingly easy to do, and once you get the hang of it you can do it in maybe a minute or two in the shower with near zero impact to your routine/schedule. [2]

[1] https://www.cancer.org/cancer/testicular-cancer/detection-di...

[2] https://www.cancer.org/cancer/testicular-cancer/detection-di...

Perhaps. Even if it was, there are enough stories that did play out exactly like this for real, so I don't suppose it terribly matters much. Being aware of something being fake becomes most relevant if people start soliciting donations etc.

The author does solicit donations via cashapp in multiple posts. Also links to an Amazon birthday wish list which is pretty bizarre...

They also wouldn't do gofundme and their Amazon wish list has wigs and camping gear on it.

I really don't think that they're doing this for the money.

Why is that bizarre?

I assure you, her course is not unlike many I see in my patients. Cancer prognosis is, by necessity, an inexact science of probabilities. More, Stage says little about progression and much about prognosis. In essence, it just describes metastatic spread which, depending on where you stand on treatments, may manifest in a multitude of different forms.

I have patients who, days before we "refrained from heroic actions," had been skiing in the alps, running a marathon, or gave birth to a child. And I have patients who, for months, waste away as we can do little but soothe the pain and provide comfort.

It's messy, strange, inexact, and different from patient to patient.

Felt the same way. Was a bit flummoxed how she has the energy to do anything and was able to maintain her weight like that. Terminal abdominal cancer makes that all but impossible.

I was surprised that she doesn't look ill at all. Not even any weight loss to speak of. I don't know much about these things, but surprising nonetheless.

The sensible European country also makes me think this is very subtle and excellent astroturf for euthanasia.

You mean a sly marketing campaign?

A friend from some years back went to a sensible European country.

It doesn't work the way you are suggesting.

who in the world do you think is astroturfing for euthanasia

I can think of worse causes to try this for.

I totally support the cause, I'm mostly curious about who the commenter thinks is doing the astroturfing work on its behalf.

People that can profit from it?

Planned parenthood evolved from the eugenics movement.

Environmentalists and anti-natalists, would like less people on the planet.

I’m sure there is a list of people and groups who don’t mind the population thinning itself.

> I’m sure there is a list of people and groups who don’t mind the population thinning itself.

Note that if you have terminal cancer, and expedite your demise by a few months, that's not really the "population thinning itself."

People should be able to do what they want. This includes, if they're of sane mind to make the decision, stop living.

Many of the largest proponents of euthanasia (organizationally and financially) require diagnosis with a terminal illness.

For now.

Once the practice is normalized, there is potential for the concept to be broadened in availability to anyone who wants it. Then we are only one step away from mandating it for certain people or groups.

It’s not like eugenics is a new concept!

Abortion has been around for a while and no one's out there trying to abort pregnancies in their last trimester. I don't think everything is necessarily a slippery slope.

This is a plainly weird position to take.

I don't know how you imagine this working, but you should read about the Dignitas operation and the legal and policing framework in which it exists.

I’m disabled and live in Canada where we have medically assisted suicide as a legal option, and some people who are disabled and mistreated by the government that ignores the plight of the less fortunate, feel that government views disabled people as a burden and it would be preferable for society or government for the disabled people to just choose to end their suffering.

Not sure if I believe that, but it sort of makes (twisted, dark) sense.

This is absolutely the primary non-religious argument against euthanasia, and it's a serious one; what happens to the priorities of a healthcare system that "prices in" assisted dying?

Discussions like this have even happened around the Liverpool Care Pathway in the UK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Care_Pathway_for_the...

I don't really know how I feel about it, except to say that my once-strong certainty that I (as someone with no dependents) would choose such a route has been softened by witnessing the astonishing care and dedication in end-of-life care even in a very overstretched NHS.

I just don't think it's fair to suggest that there is a European end-of-life-care industry that would "astroturf" this discussion; those are not the ways in which it operates.

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