re: lock in: I'd think Mozilla isn't really locked in as long as there is a cross-compiler. If you decide the the code bloat isn't worth the speed improvement (for the sites that run dart code), yank the VM and no harm done
re: opportunity cost: well the code from Google can be dropped in, unless you really feel the need to rewrite your own version.
re: "free lunch to a competitor": it sounds like if there is is potential for another "browser war", it's coming from that sort of attitude. In fact, that sounds counter to the whole concept of open source.
re: "It doesn't matter how good Dart is.": well, that's a shame. I'd like to think merit counted for something.
Overall, maybe I don't know your world and the politics etc, but it just sounds like a lot of "not invented here" syndrome to me. And I say this as someone who genuinely admires your work and really likes Javascript (and am especially pleased that Dart looks enough like Javascript to be comfortable to me).