How to stay hungry,stay foolish

Great point on people being terrible predictors of their own happiness. Their own future for that matter. I think it really depends on how much of an optimist or pessimist you are at the time.

If you're being an optimist, you may tend to get inspired and get fuel to make what you've just predicted a reality but should you fail and keep failing (most likely because of the "impact bias" mentioned), you start to lose that motivation after a while.

If you're being pessimistic when predicting your happiness/future, well it's pretty much impossible. It might be easier to predict a pessimistic future like an unemployed person might say something along the lines of "Today, I'm going to stay at home all day since the economy/I suck anyways" and by the end of the day, that plan can easily become the reality you've imagined.

Basically, you have to trust in something: your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. Come to think of it, I'm quoting another Steve Jobs quote which sums it up quiet nicely:

‎"You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something: your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life."