> maybe somewhere picturesque in Europe.
This is the daydream that keeps me going now.
I think you have some salient points; I would stay busy in the sense of making things (software) while I'm away.
> You will find another job unless you quit into the start of the recession..
This is probably what I fear, and why I'm asking around. With the inflation & supply chain issues recently, and with the current yield curve inversion, at least in a short-to-medium term sense I think the music is going to stop soon. But macro-economies are cyclical and although bad stuff spreads quickly, I don't think software specifically will have much of a dip even if some other economic sectors do.
I wasn't a professional in 2000-2003 after that downturn, but I was online during that time & witnessed the steady decline of "tech". I'm cautious of the "this time it's different" thesis, but the analog-only lifestyle that was possible in 2000 isn't what people do today - there will be long-term demand for what we/I do (this is my opinion).
To address the point directly: I think if we are starting a recession now-ish, in 6 months' time the subsequent upswing might already be starting - I recall Apr - Sept 2020. I'm confident that I'm average-or-above, which should guarantee work somewhere. If the recession starts in 6 months, I have another 6 months' runway still comfortably, and I can start the search early. I recall in previous recessions companies are still hiring developers.
> Boredom breeds a gambling habit. Don't use your free time to trade exciting markets.
This is sound advice; I only gamble in the sense of a family-and-friends regular poker night. I buy bonds & index funds on a set schedule otherwise in markets. I'm not attracted to gambling; I've met people who are, I don't think it's me. But like you say, don't take chances.
> Be accountable to yourself. Try to something meaningful to show for yourself when you're done.
It sounds like based on yours and other commentary, if the "me" time is successful, I should have artifacts to show it. The time off shouldn't represent a material issue during the subsequent job search. Since you say you have personal experience, what is your anecdote? what did you do, what would you have done differently?