Today, there is 1.7M unspent coinbase tx out of a emitted 19M coins. Once moved from a coinbase-tx, 4.3M are older than 5y, with 2.4M at >10y.
Most Bitcoin have been sold many times in their life, but they do typically sleep for a long time, given the switch of time preference. MtGox alone would have cycled a majority of the coins in its short lifetime.
The only thing that has evolved over time, that is peoples time preference. There will always be demand for BTC. The software works as it was designed, and grows stronger every year. Gresham’s law might be the key to understanding this.
I realize you need to say there will be demand for it but your desire to sell your random numbers at a profit doesn't make that true. Demand has to come from somewhere and something which has many competing alternatives which are generally cheaper, faster, and easier to use does not have much lock-in potential.
That’s the problem with multiplying the number of coins by the last sale price: it assumes a larger pool of buyers than we’ve ever seen. The number of people treating it as anything other than a lotto ticket isn’t anywhere near enough to support a valuation in the range of trillions of USD.
If you think failure is only synonymous with making money then certainly Bitcoin hasn’t failed, but at the same time it has hardly had much affect on the world outside of being a speculative asset for people to get rich off of.