Specifically, why would the 10,001st test carry a 50% chance of being a false positive?
Specifically, why would the 10,001st test carry a 50% chance of being a false positive?
Thus, the population for tests 1..10,000 is different than the population for tests 10,001..10,100.
Edit: I misunderstood the scenario.
If we test again, and the test is "fair", then of these 101 people, we will retest 99% (or 99) true negative, 1% (or 1) false positive, and 1 true positive. So two positives, one false positive and one true positive. 1 out of 2 is 50%.
(Tho, there is a chance also that the true positive might come back as a false negative, then 1 out of 1 or 100% of positive results would be false positive)
The silly thing with this demonstration is that accuracy is poorly defined. Tests are normally conditional on the actual presence of the disease or not.