2) Any income surplus generated by UBI is rapidly consumed by middle people and rent-seekers. That’s how we get inflation.
Since they can afford higher prices, people will charge those higher prices. And you are back where you started.
UBI only gives everyone extra money if it is unfunded; typical UBI proposals are funded by either increased progressive income taxes or cutting other spending (which produces income to the recipient), and so is (in first order effects) zero-sum. (Typically, it replaces rapid clawbacks from means testing with slow clawbacks by progressive tax increases.)
UBI indirectly and unfairly benefits only the people who control those goods and services. If everyone made $1000 more per month, housing prices would raise up to that amount for everyone. This means the majority of the UBI raise would go into just the landlords pockets.
This is why many welfare programs are expense- or need-dependent, because it maximizes the benefit to those who need it without impacting price inflation as much.
Might as well start with:
- Removal/reduction in zoning
- Automate construction approval workflows
- Leverage eminent domain to aggregate land, and sell for profit to the builders.
Its just a win-win-win (given the views / property values would be reduced regardless without extra housing causing SF/LA/Seattle levels of homeless people):
- Homeowners get paid, by the city / local gov, at market rate or slightly above market rate.
- The city / local government has a new profit stream, to be used for more housing / services / reduced taxes. They would aggregate land, re-zone it, get approvals completed, and sell the whole package to the highest bidding developers.
- Developers reduce costs to aggregate land and due to interest payments while waiting for all the land + approvals.
- City gets to better plan the hosing market, i.e. superblocks, transit, etc.
- City dwellers get more access to housing (i.e. cheaper housing), and possibly reduced taxes. Also reduced crime and homelessness because the city is affordable for everyone.
There are ways to achieve all of the above that doesn't require destroying income-elastic priced markets. UBI is not a good solution.
UBI doesn't work well at all, like you stated, if there isn't a big increase in the supply of housing. For example, Seattle needs 10x more housing than it has today, and in 10 years it'll need 100x more housing than it has today. Ideally, all of these should be new luxury condo buildings, with 1000-3000 sqft condos, driving prices of all housing down by 10x. I would really like to see the city make this their only priority.
Seattle has about 740k people and about 370k housing units. 10 times the housing units would be enough for the entire state population at an average occupancy of 2 persons/unit. 100 times would be enough for roughly every US state bordering on or one state out from the Pacific Ocean.
Seattle pretty emphatically does not need that much housing.
Density also facilitates business and pulls in even more workers, who are also customers and it’s a positive cycle.
Seattle needs 100x more housing in the next 10 years if it wants to continue to be a competitive city. As a resident I sure hope it does.
In practice it probably depends on a lot of factors and would need empirical studies.
Of course it would. It's happening right now.
On #2 I think your claim needs evidence or support, I doubt that would be true for the most part (maybe to some extent).
Typical UBI proposals are funded, e.g., by additional progressive taxes, and so no actual income surplus is generated (in a first-order analysis), income is redistributed, compressing distribution.
At which point the proposal becomes a welfare system that pointlessly disburses and claws-back cash.
(1) Eliminates multiple sets of inefficient benefits/eligibility bureaucracy that duplicates functionality already performed as part of taxing authority.
(2) Eliminates a counterproductive incentives associated with typical means-tested benefit eligibility, which has clawbacks at low income levels and rapid marginal rate (sometimes exceeding 100% with marginal income when tallied across all means-tested programs; this effect creates a barrier to progress beyond a low income level. (While progressive income taxes may be raised from previous levels to fund it, when viewed as clawbacks these changes typically kick in at much higher income levels and lower marginal rates than typical means-tested benefit clawback.)
Your second point acknowledges that taxing away UBI through progressive tax rates is a clawback. As I read it, your idea is that the increased marginal taxation due to the clawback will occur at higher income levels than exist with current programs. Why not just change the existing tax rates instead of sending out cash and taxing it back?
The most recent that springs to mind is the elimination of most of the conscription-related bureaucracy post-Vietnam.
> Your second point acknowledges that taxing away UBI through progressive tax rates is a clawback. As I read it, your idea is that the increased marginal taxation due to the clawback will occur at higher income levels than exist with current programs. Why not just change the existing tax rates instead of sending out cash and taxing it back?
A baseline tax credit plus adjustments to existing rates is widely recognized as one mechanism for implementing a UBI, but even the there is often a desire to have an estimated advance mechanism, to avoid a delay of potentially more than a year from when people enter the UBI-covered population and when they start benfiting from it.
I was just thinking of that as an entrenched bureaucracy example but decided to focus things on an entitlement program. Despite having zero purpose for 49 years, Selective Service still manages to spend $26m/year [0].
> often a desire to have an estimated advance mechanism, to avoid a delay of potentially more than a year
The model for advance payments on an upcoming year's tax credits already exists [1]. I can see how this doesn't address downward change in income, but also don't see how that couldn't be added.
0. https://www.sss.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Annual-Report...
1. https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/advance-child-tax-cre...
It’s a no-brainer!
Don't make UBI subject to garnishment/attachment to pay debt and exclude it from income considered available when determining bankruptcy terms. Lending behavior under those conditions will prevent the use of credit you are concerned with, and bankruptcy itself will resolve problematic cases to the extent that lending behavior does not prevent it.
Most minimum wage earners are not in poverty because they are taking too many vacations and buying too many luxury items: they are in poverty because rents are consuming 40-60% of their income, costs of essentials to live and commute to work are rapidly rising, and a single medical debt can wipe out all of their savings in an instant.
Avocado toast is not destroying the middle class - corporate greed is.
People aren't poor because they are lazy and stupid, as ultra-capitalist pundits would like you to believe to prevent you feeling empathy. America is systemically broken in a way that it is no longer 'the land of opportunity': poverty today is a trap that hardly anyone can escape by simply working hard and spending wisely.
Of course everyone gets UBI…
…except the polluters …and CO2 emitters …and meat eaters …and porn watchers …and weed smokers …and tobacco smokers …and alcohol drinkers …and maybe it’s distributed on a curve, depending on race
It could be corrupted so easily. And it’s a single point of failure.
Unfortunately, non-cash welfare has tons of the manipulation you describe. You can get kicked out of public housing for using drugs and food stamps have all kinds of arbitrary limitations on them based on what the state legislature thinks you should be eating.
Uh, no, it's not.
The byzantine structure is because of (and in part to disguise the way that) every component of the system is agenda driven, and often by an agenda rather divergent from the overt purpose of the programs.
And of course, economists don't find it has the negative effects it used to theoretically have, because throughout the 90s they switched from just making things up to actually doing real-world empirical studies. (That is, it doesn't seem to have them up to "60% of local median income" IIRC.)
I prefer sector-specific minimum wages though. Somewhere in the neighborhood of Denmark or Australia.
what are these "extremely unproductive jobs" you speak of? Is the job of a burger flipper really so bad that we should eliminate it from the economy? Is it so bad, that if someone's skills only allows him to do that job, that it's better for him to stay at home and twiddle his thumbs than to show up to work?
I was thinking of things like servants, typists, textile workers.
I don't think they were eliminated because of minimum wage. They were eliminated because of a combination of outsourcing/globalization, which set an upper bound on how much those jobs can pay (at least in the US), and baumol's cost disease, which set a lower bound on what workers were willing to accept. The two forces combined to make those professions unviable. Getting rid of the minimum wage probably won't bring those jobs back. If anything the jobs will go to more productive sectors (thanks to baumol's cost disease), rather than to the utterly unproductive ones like you mentioned.
...aside from how it's funded.
>along with a ton of other scattered welfare programs that have lots of administrative overhead and the typical middleman industries that leech off of government programs.
That sounds great in theory, if everyone is the type of person that can take care of himself for $15k (or whatever) a year. But what about people with special needs? eg. people with mental health problems or medical conditions requiring expensive therapy? Unless you think we should let those people fend for themselves, you'll still need welfare programs to help those people, which mean all the "administrative overhead and the typical middleman industries that leech off of government programs" that you're so against.
Speaking from experience, such people already have to fend for themselves...so nothing really changes.
UBI is the epitome of a cocktail party idea: https://danluu.com/cocktail-ideas/
Do you really think this is what is causing inflation? Perhaps there are other facts, such as trillions of dollars of almost zero interest money injected since 2008, massive tax cuts for highly profitable companies (eg AAPL) that result in great payouts to people who are already paying low taxes (long term capital gains), complex interacting forces that moved the cost of a barrel of oil from a low of $20 to over $100?
I'm not sure how I see how spending a ton more money (UBI) will help with inflation at this point. 100% debt-to-gdb is already a lot.
Currently private investors are refusing to invest in oil even without environmental factors in the picture - they think it's a temporary spike and are insisting the oil companies pay them back dividends instead.
I'm critical of UBI but using a global pandemic with millions of deaths as an example isn't what UBI is.
Calling it a failed experiment is ridiculous - it was infrequent and an order of magnitude too small.