This is for symmetric encryption, and for asymmetric the equivalent is ~1024-bits, so padding it up to 2048-bits is generally the "minimum" for RSA, and some of that math is advancing too so bumping it to 4096-bits isn't a bad idea. If you want to be quantum proof, RSA will be broken so moving to something else like EC is nice. AES would be halved O(sqrt(N)), so AES-128 becomes the equivalent of AES-64, so if you want to be quantum proof there you need to jump up to AES-256 (unless you are using XTS/tweak mode, in which case AES-512). Keep in mind quantum also is not exactly short term practical to accomplish at the moment.
You can use whatever technology to accomplish that complexity, be it passwords, SSH keys, or SSH certs. Anything else is just technology architecture noise. Passwords absolutely can clear the O(2^N) > 80 bit threshold. It's just about bytes, and how you store them.
Nobody is going to be brute forcing a sufficiently complex password over the network anytime soon unless it isn't actually random but some default password that looks random.
Just look at the title of this post: "If you're not using SSH certificates you're doing SSH wrong". It's just completely devoid of environment issues, user issues, datacenter issues, and reeks of elitism. There is no "one true way" despite people's insistence that they are the arbiters of truth. I keep reading here about "you should just use serial over network instead of SSH!" but fail to read about how those serial over network connections are usually less secure than SSH itself.
Best practices guides have gone off the rails. They are generally good guidelines, but you have to make sure you are taking into account your own environment and user needs and take them with a grain of salt. Learn for yourself, and read raw facts from real cryptographers and people in the field. Don't take best practices guides as absolute truth, but learn from them.
How does one become a security professional? Maybe not with one of those "become a security professional in 30 minutes" packages then start a blog about how everyone isn't conforming to their tiny worldview. No matter what it'll take >10 years with actual experience, just like any profession. One has to start from the bottom and make their way up. Most environments are too complicated for any "one size fits all" solution:
EDIT: Further discussion on this here is interesting. The top comments go all in on SSH certificates, then down the line people start questioning why passwords are bad in the same ways. A lot of the "SSL certificate" push theorized here from their perspective seems to come from VPN providers that need it from lesser skilled clients/users (think, people who bought VPNs off YouTube video recommendations):
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/02/after...