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Comment by davidkuennen | Hacker News Reader

My pet theory why stocks have stopped reacting to real world fundamentals is simply because the main sector changed.

Currently that's technology, which happens mostly on the internet globally. I can't really imagine a real world event big enough that would shake up Google, Amazon, Apple, etc. all at once. Sure, individually they can be threatened by innovation, but generally everything on the internet feels very "detached" from real world events.

If possible even russia would still use those services today.

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I mean if Facebook losing %0.01 (or whatever it was) of it's users is enough to drop it's share price by 40%

I think that anything could pop this bubble at this point, people investing in these companies are expecting growth that isn't realistic imo

All these companies have hit their saturation point and are just fighting over the same shrinking pie at this point. Just look at how many social media sites have implemented tik tok functionality. That alone to me screams "too much capital and not enough growth"

It didn't matter that they missed user estimates for 1 quarter. It mattered that their growth forecast went from close to 30% to 3% (over a medium term horizon).

Your P/E drops precipitously when your future growth drops precipitously.

A report showing negligible effectiveness of online advertising via social media could be enough to shake the input if the market is shaky.

That is because facebook ‘sells’ stuff people can easily live without… its not the same for the other companies

Easier than that. Classical stock valuation methods only make sense when the market is composed of financially educated, rational investors who use similar valuation methods. That is an outdated model of the markets though. When you add in algorithm driven trading and a sea of retail investors who are anything but rational, we can see how stock market valuation actually plays out: simple supply and demand. I mean just look at GameStop. Apes wanted bad stock, drove price up and then caught the shorts with their pants down. That was simply supply and demand mechanics. The same can be said for Tesla or a litany of other “overpriced” stocks.

> I can't really imagine a real world event big enough that would shake up Google, Amazon, Apple, etc. all at once

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

Now you can

Or because the fed is still printing money like there is no tomorrow. It is kind of puzzling to read Powell claiming he is worried about inflation while still printing huge amounts of QE at the same time.

> Or because the fed is still printing money like there is no tomorrow.

It’s not.

> It is kind of puzzling to read Powell claiming he is worried about inflation while still printing huge amounts of QE at the same time.

QE stopped around the same time as the rate hike, and quantitative tightening (going from stop to reverse on QE) has been announced as upcoming.

as far has I can tell the size of the Fed balance sheet is still growing every week. So yes they are still printing massive amount of money right now, at a similar pace than QE2 and QE3, and they have done for most of 2021, when inflation was already picking up significantly.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm

https://www.ready.gov/space-weather#:~:text=To%20begin%20pre....

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