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The key is this observation from the article: "QT does not change the size of the Treasury market but does change the composition of ownership. By the end of QT Non-Fed investors should hold $2t more Treasuries as Fed holdings decline by $2t."

Basically QT means fewer bonds owned by the Fed and correspondingly more bonds owned by others (banks, investors, other countries).

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The article also notes that private investors have no appetite for more bonds and prices will crater as a result. Could this lead to higher yields and thus higher borrowing costs for the government? Are interest payments about to make a major jump in the federal budget?

If they do it would be because the Fed has decided so and could decide the opposite at any point in time.

If you ask me, yes and yes. But I don't think they will get very high. I've seen claims of low demand for US bonds before and it turned out the exact opposite.

Right, I supposed we should consider bonds compared to where else would you put the money atm - nothing looks particularly attractive.

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