Smoke can be seen coming from the Russian Embassy in the Polish Capital Warsaw
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A. NATO crushes Russia in a ground war
B. Russia launches nuclear weapons
There is no scenario in which Putin conquers any part of Poland. I can't imagine what he could gain from it.
To me the Belarussian seaports is the giveaway - it is hard to imagine that port near St.Petersburg, and for making it in the Kaliningrad region the land connection is needed, and that would exactly mean breaking of that "Suwalki gap" that the news have been talking in the recent days.