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Comment by dionidium | Hacker News Reader

The problem is that people are rational and 1) the costs of using Uber for routine trips to the bar are very high; and 2) the likelihood of getting in a crash on any particular trip are pretty low. So millions of people every year do the math and decide it's worth the risk.

I think they're wrong to do this, because the worst potential outcome of drunk driving is so devastating and catastrophic that it's personally optimal to eliminate that risk to zero. But the fact is that this isn't really how humans weigh risk.

Obviously anti-drunk-driving campaigns have been somewhat effective. People take this problem more seriously than they did 40 years ago. But I wonder if we aren't at a point of diminishing returns. Some people are going to drive drunk, no matter how many times you tell them to take an Uber.

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Is someone who won't pay for a taxi really going to spend money on a tesla or Mercedes with self driving capabilities?

When I say "costs" I don't mean the $20 for the Uber (although that's not nothing). You have to think about the guy who wants to stop at the bar on his way home from work. To do that properly, he has to drive right past the bar, park at home, schedule an Uber, wait for it, then take it back to the bar.

Or he can just stop on his way home.

We both know what the right thing to do is, but one has significant costs the other doesn't.

Or imagine he does stop at the bar on his way home and tells himself he'll just have one beer, but he ends up having four and shouldn't drive. Now he has to get an Uber, take it home, get another Uber before work in the morning, and take it back to the bar to get his car. And then, finally, head to work.

Or he can just drive home.

Again, we both know what the right thing to do is, but one has significant costs the other doesn't.

It's probably a negligible portion of drunk driving incidents, but there definitely are people like that. In the past year there have been multiple drunk driving incidents with well-paid NFL players in nice cars, and these are just the ones who get caught. Whether those guys would turn on self driving mode is another question I guess, but every time it's baffling they didn't just request an Uber Black or something.

That tells you that the "cost" of taking an Uber isn't primarily monetary. It's a big hassle to leave your car at the bar, take an Uber, wake up, get another Uber, go get your car, then drive your car back home. People are weighing that hassle against the odds anything bad will happen on their trip home and deciding it's worth it.

People with expensive cars don't drunk drive? Seriously?

Even if that were true, I have a hard time imagining that the cost of self driving packages won't continue to decrease until it's included in literally every new car. Just a matter of time (assuming someone is able to make a fully working version).

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