Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

Ukraine is currently in the second group. They can "win" the war simply by not losing it. The longer it drags on, the bigger the losses are on both sides, but for Russia those losses are completely avoidable while for Ukraine the losses of the continued war aren't greater than the losses of stopping the war.

Add to that the devastating sanctions of the west and it's easy to see how Russia is under immense pressure to achieve a proper victory as soon as possible.

If there is any aspect in which Russia might be benefiting from prolonged fighting, it's the possibility of fixing their supply issues, but it's questionable how much that would open them up to even more partisan interference.

Militarily, Its lost impetus. Blyatzkreig indeed. It's as if the sweep to the west in 39/40 stalled in the Ardennes and never reached paris. It's as if the sweep to the east in 41 stalled 50km outside of Polish borders. There is no evidence that can hide from sats, to backfill the supply chain logistics for a massive breakout and change. All they have (the Russians) is to destroy, salt the earth, and declare done with Carthage, but in reality, it won't work either.

Claiming victory early presumes the wests views of acceptable loss and attrition hold. I am less sure this is true, and doesn't take account of the suggestions of both Chechen and Syrian mercenaries (if we can call them that) doing this work.

The bombing campaign of WWII cost significantly more in losses of men than the west would tolerate now, but it did carry on then. I think to declare this "too much" is to misunderstand what Russian forces might do, given their structure. Its not a western army. Why do we believe armchair critics saying its unsustainable? I don't know what is or is not sustainable, I do know Persians who told me the Iran-Iraq war would never have stopped simply because of bodycount. It lasted 8 years.

I think it is a victory of sorts, especially if the bodycount (or non-bodycount, given we're told they took battlefield crematoria with them) mounts. Putin cannot sustain peace-keeping mission, against this situation. No UN intervention has sustained this level of loss. Its a paper thin fiction.

I personally struggle to consider 4m refugees, and the potential for a continuing stalingrad war in the rubble as victory. Militarily, I agree this is not a sustainable occupation. There is no victory for Russia, in holding a wasteland against its residents wishes. No puppet government will exist to shore up defence of the motherland, for long.

Its stupid. If politicians cannot learn how to say "I made a mistake" we're all doomed. But I don't think Putin has been drawn to admit a mistake in a long time.

I am sure many defence technology specialists are delighted with what NLAW and UAV have achieved. This is our generations "machine guns change horse charges" moment maybe. I would worry this lesson will be learned both ways: NATO posture to defend against Russian aggression now has to work out how to defend against NLAW and UAV.

The hollowness of the Russian armed forces, the manifest corruption behind their materiel, I mean things as basic as chinese import tires which weren't rotated and the sidewalls gave out, the rank conditions of the MRE, the lack of structural defence against weapons on the tanks, the fitout of the tanks, the quality of the troops personal weaponry and uniforms.. Thats totally unexpected. I freely admit to having believed the Russian army was in better shape.

Hypersonic weapons are cool, but you need professional soldiers. They have a lot less of them, than I thought.

I'm not, and never have been a soldier. I am in awe of what people in Ukraine are willing to endure, to oppose the aggressor.

Russia is doing this now. It is wasting large numbers of men and resources against a smaller foe simply because it is a dictatorship and there is no one to assess the battle and tally up the cost who counts. Russian men, of which 50% are ill trained conscripts, are being fed into a modern day meat grinder. It is reminiscent of the Korean War when China threw so many men against US machine guns that there soldiers were unable to advance over the mounds of bodies. The US suffered far smaller losses and staged a managed retreat under fire where machine gun lines were set up behind the firing line, and they then quickly stopped firing from the firing line, packed up and retreated while the next line maintained fire from a longer range so the meat grinder persisted - this persisted until the UN Allied forces were relieved with greater forces and a cease fire line and settlement finally emerged. Ukraine has better troops, in smaller numbers, from a smaller national base = Putin has decided to seek a Pyrrhic victory. He has expanded to civilian shelling and feels he will eventually reach the point of terminal depletion of Ukraine's men and materials. NATO allies are sending in force magnifiers, anti tank and anti air weapons carried by 1-2 man teams. The Ukrainians are using Chinese over the counter retail small drones to fly in at a few hundred feet at night, with IR Flir cameras and memory chips to record the trip they are too small for radar and not easily seen as they fly. These 10-20 minute trips(some longer) return and go out repeatedly with new batteries and the video is inspected for tank etc data. Crews then go and destroy the targets of high value. Command bunkers are located as much as possible and night vision snipers may be able to hit exposed personnel, often at down as the crews and officers emerge for the day's attack. So the question is: Can the command levels of the Russian army see this(certainly - they know it is a small scale meat grinder) - can the top brass influence Putin? He has surrounded himself with obedient yes men all armed to protect him as he is a fearful man, paranoid about being poisoned he recently purged his local group by about 1000 people as he knows he has huge internal opposition. At which point will the opposition reach the point where they act to influence him? This will be a suicide mission as his cadre will act to kill any assassins that emerge. The question becomes one of information reaching the people at large. Tens of thousand of Russian have protested, 5-10,000 have been arrested, and more thousands beaten and released. Social Media is gradually getting though, via Telegram, and various Apps. ggm 11 is quite correct in his assessment. Russia can not garrison Ukraine with tens of 1000's of rifles in public hands. In sum, the Russian people and possibly the generals will have to act soon or this meat grinder will carry on. It can also be ended by Ukraine's capitulation to Russia's demands for land and an agreement to eschew NATO = neutral buffer state?

edit: I cannot answer your comment because it was immediately flagged. I don't really see why.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsehood_in_War-Time

The bullet points seem to awfully fit media reporting and I am sure they have common sources on a lot of topics.

I guess a victory condition for Ukraine would be to keep its government. They still have that for now. But if they hold out and Russia "just" keeps the regions around Donbass with access to the black sea, it is a very small victory and the EU still does buy gas from Russia and any third party intervention seems unlikely.