Games are getting harder and more expensive to make, but projects like Irrlicht and Ogre 3d are becoming more complex. As the years go on the paradigm will change from a content centric design in PC games, to a complexity and community centric design philosophy. I can see a time when the community builds the environment within the bounds of the rules of the game engine - and I'm not talking about second life.
And where do you suggest all the millions of Modders will go?
Consoles are becoming computers, and I can guarantee the operating systems will look more and more like a simplified version of windows, or OSX as the years go on.... OpenGL, DirectX will continue to be developed. The simple fact alone that Console games must be developed on a PC is going to keep the PC kicking - it has to run emulated versions of the software that the console (lesser hardware) runs - PC Gaming isn't dead at all ... All you need to realize that is an internet connection and a POGO account. I realize this isn't the market segment you are talking about but the largest private website in the world is an online PC games site (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miniclip) As long as there is a pc - AND THERE always will be a device that allows for open development, and deployment of software - there will be games (irregardless of how complex) for that platform.
Bottom Line: as long as people have computers they, and their kids are going to want to put games on them.