It would be not too different than Idlib, which hasn't led to massive war, with the exception the government will have invited these troops.
Good thing we didn't have this attitude during the Cold War. We can help, and we should not going to listen to a non-ultimatum which hasn't been even given.
There's a reason there were endless proxy wars, guerrilla trainings, and secret arms supplying back then. Neither side would risk a direct conflict with the other, so they did all that instead.
You'll notice that's the exact same toolbox they're drawing on now. They didn't invent this shit for putin.
I'd step out on a limb and say maybe the best move is to let the aggressors take whatever they want, nobody really knows.
Apparently I'm not the only one thinking this:
If Putin wants to commit suicide by being dumb, we can't stop him, but he should know an attack would end up badly (for the Russians). We can see they have difficulty with merely the regular Ukrainian army.
And Ukraine had an army better than any EU country other than Turkey and Russia had not been waging a total war (thus the forces hiding in cities are not being burned with tactical nukes/thermobaric munitions). Russia is not Syria, it has air force and navy, great anti-air and anti-ship capabilities, military intelligence of all kinds (and nukes, of course). What is going to ensure the Western victory, angry twits? As far as I know, Twitter is banned in Russia already. More sanctions? These seem to hurt the West more than Russia at the moment and Russia has not even started turning off oil, coal and gas.
Source? Because on the face of it, that sounds actually crazy. Russia has been reduced to economic rubble already. By summer, they won't be able to run their farms that operate foreign equipment, their planes can't fly anywhere but even if they could that's a moot point because very soon they won't be able to maintain them, tens of thousands of Russians are fleeing the country every day(and I can only imagine a lot of them are the best and brightest and also people with means to actually escape). It looks like the best they can hope for is for China to buy them out and that they can become a slightly better equipped North Korea 2 - a chinese vassal state.
>>Russia has not even started turning off oil, coal and gas.
I'll give them one thing - Russia has been better at sanctioning themselves than "the west" could ever hope for. Just today they announced a 10 year ban on any foreign company that doesn't return by 1st of May, in addition to the legislation that is getting rid of copyright as well as patent protection for foreign companies in the country. Why would anyone do any business with them long term.
So yeah, I absolutely expect them to destroy whatever sliver of economy they still have and actually turn off the gas. I can't wait actually.
Sure, this is what Obama said in 2014. Since then Russia modernized its military: deployed the new MBT, 5th gen fighter, hypersonic missiles among many things (and actually used the latter in combat just recently) and waged two successful military campaigns (Syria and Ukraine). What did the Western military do in the same time? Managed to screw up the retreat from Afghanistan and the West-backed forces in Syria lost/defected. Any successes of the Western military might I had missed?
And the WH Press Secretary had been telling us that the inflation the US is suffering is caused by Putin so I am guessing it's the effect of the sanctions since I doubt very much Putin is in control of the US economy just yet (that's assuming WH is not blatantly lying and there is some link between Putin and inflation).
Maybe you missed it, but the sanctions imposed on Russia in the last two weeks are nothing like we've ever seen. The position Obama was in 2014 is not even comparable. Also, has he really actually said that? I find that hard to believe.
And like I said, current economic sanctions are worse than anything we've ever used against a developed country in terms of economic punishment. So whatever image you have of Russia in 2014 - now is worse.
>>I just hope it does not push my gas prices over 20 $/gal.
I don't see how it would.
> I don't see how it would.
Figures. As I said further up thread, many people seem to be applying their ignorance to analyze a complex geopolitical situation.
And I looked up the transcript of the State of The Union address you mentioned and he does indeed say that. Thanks.
Probably far worse, though actual measurements will take time; also, if the sanctions are maintained equally well, given how much more comprehensive they are, it will be much harder for Russia’s economy to reconfigure and bounce back as it did post-2015.
I am sure the sanctions will hit hard people who still have ties with the West e.g. people working for the Western companies or doing business with Western companies but I don't see how this can affect Russia's military capability. Some "model" not getting paid from Instagram/OnlyFans is not going to slow down military production and deployment.
[0] Here's one piece of analysis after, and referring to, the description: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/21/obamas-remarks-on-russias-ec...
So you want to send boots on the ground in ukraine. Presumably you also think doing so isn't escalatory. However, you also think if some of them get killed, it's putin that's escalating? That almost sounds like "if you get hit it's your own fault"[1] logic.