Number of housing units to households is the same as year 2000. 1.1:1
So the undersupply story is a myth. There has been a recent pull forward in demand that ate through all active listings though.
So the undersupply story is a myth. There has been a recent pull forward in demand that ate through all active listings though.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLHH
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ETOTALUSQ176N
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCONTSA
Homes actively under construction is about to hit an all time high, higher than the 70s peak
Plus consider demographics. Millennial hump has passed avg home buying age, and there are demographic headwinds going forward, unless immigration policy becomes more permissive. Of course demographic impact will take decade or more to play out.
By demographic headwinds, I mean fewer young people, e.g. Inverted population pyramid. See Japan or China for how this will play out
If 1m people decided to sell tomorrow, suddenly inventory would be normal. At the end of the day what matters is how many housing units are there and how many households. To say there's a shortage is simply wrong, given that the ratio is well in line with historical norms.
The number of active listings is low because a surge of demand due to low interest rates and then later FOMO ate through active inventory. If rates hit 5% within the month, you'll be surprised how quickly inventory returns to normal.
Way too much statistics crimes when talking about housing
I use logic and accurate interpretation of the data in my assessment, all these counter arguments use statistic butchering and hopium. Yet people cling to the narrative for whatever reason. Bias is a hell of a drug.
If inflation persists at 4-5% we will see 6% mortgages within the year. Many are blinded by the last decade of low inflation. If inflation suddenly dissipates, due to a shock etc, then housing prices can preserve at these levels.