The March of Folly Resumed: Russia, Ukraine and the West

Richard Sakwa tries (at length) to explain Putin's thinking. Sakwa is probably the best Western scholar for this, as he seems to have put more effort than others into understanding the Russian perspective.

TL;DR

Western diplomatic relations with post-Soviet Russia were very badly managed. Russians grew increasingly frustrated.

In deciding on war, Putin miscalculated in at least four ways:

1. He under-estimated the scale of Ukrainian resistance, and over-estimated the capacity of the Russian military.

2. He under-estimated the intensity of the Western response.

3. He over-estimated the Russian popular appetite for war.

4. He under-estimated the destabilizing effect on the Russian political order.

Sakwa sees a fundamental incompatibility with how the West and Russia model their security concerns. He doesn't have great hopes for mutually satisfactory resolution.