Of the two possibilities, it's certainly more likely -- in strictly relative terms.
But Western media seems to put a lot of stock in 'people power'. In this particular case, it's misplaced.
But Western media seems to put a lot of stock in 'people power'. In this particular case, it's misplaced.
Putin until now had managed to carefully play the Russian opinion to be mostly favorable to him, and I just don't see how this can possibly continue once the reality of what is currently happening in Ukraine to their friends and family filters through the propaganda. His own glorification of WW2 over the last decades is going to play against him here, as the pictures of bombed cities are going to raise immediate associations putting in question just who are the real "Nazis" here.
This leaves the repressive option... but this would require levels of repression not seen since Stalin, and we're living in a completely different mediatic landscape.
No way that this doesn't end up in a revolution.
Nor I believe that attempts of going full North Korea with almost completely cut off media and communications would be accepted by the population, or even feasible in practice.
The only thing going for Putin is the indiscriminate nature of economic sanctions, strengthening his "the West wants to destroy Russia" line.
I think you grossly underestimate the sophistication of autocracies, both in their repressive capacity and in their ability to effectively BS their people about the causes of their misery.
Yeah, there's going to be some technoratti in the cities that tune into Western news via VPNs and Telegram or whatever. Who cares? They don't have much say in the setup of modern Russia, or most petro-states.