Speculation: The other side of this bet is actually Tether itself laughing all the way to the bank as Fir Tree sends them their 15% negative carry (Goldman or equivalent taking 5% for brokering the deal).

If the Tether guys know they have the money and this will never happen.. might it not be good business to keep looking shady? They can buy everytime the peg goes below $1 making free money.. and sometimes a hedge fund comes by and hands them some more money risk free.