Modelling suggests that by 2021, 18M had died because of the pandemic | Hacker News Reader

Modelling suggests that by 2021, 18M had died because of the pandemic

nature.com

37 pointsBrajeshwar28 comments

I suggest the models might be crafted for the purpose of fantastical exaggeration of deaths from COVID.

"Because of the pandemic" is of course an even wider net. I know of at least 3 shooting deaths reported as COVID fatalities, apparently they tested positive postmortem. "Pandemic deaths" could include what, anyone run over by a COVID positive person? Can we count "future deaths" in today's total? Everybody who had COVID is gonna die... so is everybody who didn't have it.

Dead with COVID =/= Dead from COVID.

Every study seems to ignore this and includes data from a variety of sources mixing the two.

Exactly. The indirect toll of covid will never be measured (or told) but is probably shockingly high.

The article you're commenting on is literally about one group's attempt to measure and tell the thing you say will never be measured or told.

You're absolutely right. My wording was incorrect. I debated editing my answer but will fix it here: I think that trying to measure this is both incredibly interesting and incredibly useful. Thank you for calling this out!

What does this study say about it?

This number is in line with the estimate made by The Economist.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

(20M global excess deaths, vs 6M official covid deaths).

To be clear: we're talking about global excess deaths here (i.e. deaths due to covid in a direct or indirect way), not direct deaths.

This analysis struck me in terms of how many people may have died from covid indirectly.

Considering the pandemic response plunged 100 million people into poverty, many of those excess deaths could be from our response, not the virus.

This is the challenge of measuring COVID deaths. Did these people die because of COVID?

* someone who committed suicide after going bankrupt because of COVID.

* someone who died of cancer because they couldn’t get a hospital appointment

Worse, what if they had COVID asymptomatically when they did it? Is it a COVID death, a suicide, or both?

It depends who you ask.

> It depends who you ask.

That's not really true. Have you seen anywhere that says that about a suicide by someone with COVID who is asymptomatic?

This is an excess mortality study, not going off of positive covid tests. And there's some meaningful research that suggests that those are relatively accurate because indirect deaths have gone up and down in a way that could be a wash (e.g. less traffic deaths because of shutdown, but more deaths from untreated illness because hospitals were overwhelmed).

And this is Academic modeling - they don't have an incentive to inflate the numbers.

> I suggest the models might be crafted for the purpose of fantastical exaggeration of deaths from COVID.

Based on what? Is there evidence in the study or in what the researchers said? Any evidence? On one hand, we have a research reported in leading scientific journals; on the other, someone's comment on the Internet.

> I know of at least 3 shooting deaths reported as COVID fatalities, apparently they tested positive postmortem.

Could you cite these for us?

Are there news stories about these deaths? I’ve seen this repeated several times and it seems like something that would be easy to look into.

I appreciate the authors intentions, which appear to want to include everything during this time (e.g. increase in obesity and suicides). Basically, it's an overall view of the cost of the pandemic AND our responses to it.

However, I think this will be used to discuss the disease. I'm skeptical of there being serious underreporting of deaths due to covid in developed countries (e.g. US, Japan). As far as I can tell, there is really only a mechanism for over reporting (e.g. died with covid instead of died of COVID).

There was a case of someone getting killed in a traffic accident a few weeks after testing positive of COVID being classed as a COVID-related death and I realised the numbers are definitely going to be over and not under reported. South Parks Pandemic Special hit it home when the police shoot Tolkien and then quarantine the school because of a covid-related incident (if covid didn't exist, the police wouldn't have been teaching at the school, and Tolkien would never have been shot).

Not all fatalities are tested.

> As far as I can tell, there is really only a mechanism for over reporting (e.g. died with covid instead of died of COVID).

The "mechanism" for under-reporting is the SOP when someone dies: unless they were already in a hospital or otherwise being monitored (e.g., being considered a victim of a crime), there's a decent chance that they won't be tested for anything. AFAIK, most municipalities don't even require a police or medical report for a presumed natural death.

> As far as I can tell, there is really only a mechanism for over reporting (e.g. died with covid instead of died of COVID).

What is this mechanism?

And no one is talking about how to prevent this from happening again in the future.

Chinese wet-markets are still open.

SARS-CoV-1 virus and SARS outbreak 2002-2004 SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 pandemic 2019-2022 SARS-CoV-3 virus 203?-20??

And US healthcare is still for-profit

I'm in favor of a not-for-profit healthcare system, but how will such a system prevent future pandemics?

There are wet markets everywhere. Your home town might have one. This is not a China thing.

Any idea why Chinese wet markets might be more interesting than the fish throwers at pike place?

I think you are are smart enough to get it with just one guess.

These numbers are around the same as the 1918 flu epidemic. Perhaps there's something in that ?

Not really, the World's population then was less than a quarter of what it is today.

But also they didn't have bipap and ventilators, antivirals, antibiotics for secondary baceterial infections, or antibody infusions then either.

how many of those by medical malfeasance?

how many by economic destruction (this group affects mainly the bottom 1/3 to 1/2 of socioeconomic spectrum, depending on country (in some 3rd world countries this fraction is higher than that normal range) from the post 1 month (after spring '20) measures?

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