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Comment by bitcharmer | Hacker News Reader

The scale of today's sanctions against Russia is unprecedented. I don't think this study applies here in the slightest.

We (the West) can't just invade Russia and enforce peace that way. Political, economical and cultural isolation is the next best thing we have.

I fully support sanctions against them.

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You don't need to invade Russia to enforce peace. You just need to start targeting anything that crosses into Ukraine.

I agree that the scope and scale of these sanctions are beyond anything I think we've seen before. However, I don't think that invalidates the question 'how effective are they really?' Let's not fool ourselves into thinking they will act as a short-term deterrent as current events are showing. Sure, they may very well cripple and/or even lead to the collapse of Putin's regime given enough time. (i.e. likely years or more) That's not much help to Ukraine in the time frame they have to operate in.

No, they might not help Ukraine, but they might stop the next one from happening.

Not likely as long as Russia has at least one major trading partner (i.e. China) who can redirect critical goods to them. If all major trading partners cut them off, then possibly.

Doubt it. The US will never get punishment for Iraq and Afghanistan so the precedent of we go to war because we really want to will stay. The lesson will be - be better prepared.

For anyone with a brain watching the lesson will be: you get to invade other countries when you have enough friends, or at least, not enough opposition. Which has been the case since countries started being a thing.

It would certainly help Ukraine if Russia is deprived of the parts and material it needs to maintain equipment. E.g., Russian airlines will soon be in dire straits as sanctions are cutting off their access to vital replacement parts; sanctions could have a similar effect for Russia's air force.

The Russian economy might very well implode soon ( weeks to months), and the rapid disappearance of many brands and types of products from the Russian market is probably highly unpopular with the population. If they're forced to send in reservists ( which isn't out of the question seeing how the initial Russian advance is stalled on basically all fronts), that will only add to the growing resentment. There's historical precedent for forced conscripts to turn around and fight against the authority conscripting them ( French Revolution, Russian Revolutions and Civil War).

Venezuela and Cuba have had sanctions for decades.

Not to the same extent they haven't, and even if that were not the case, there's a big difference - Russia was a developed-ish country. People have Internet everywhere, mobile phones, computers, gadgets, Netflix, Spotify, etc. Lots of heavy industry relying on imported machinery. Lots of exports.

Cuba, North Korea didn't have any of those. Venezuela and Iran only share the export-reliant economy bit.

If the goal is to make the population turn on Putin's regime, sanctions are more likely to work here than ever before.

No.

Venezuela had 'sanctions' starting on 2016, last year of Obama presidency. The scope of those sanctions is very limited to SOME individuals either in the Government and some business associates. There is no general embargo. And while the political scenario seems to no have changed very much, at least on the name and faces, the sanctions are the clear starting point on a big economic change that happened on 2018, where the economy opened up and was unofficially dollarized, probably by those who were not longer able to easily extract those dollars and euros into the US and EU (and fiscal paradises)like they were use to do. In this case, the sanctions had improved millions of lives and I guess that is good enough

They will cripple russian industry (already some factories stopped production) including parts of military production, which in itself means they are at least somewhat effective.

Yes the sanctions against Russia feels almost nuclear in comparison to what we have seen kn the past. But still they can be tuned up higher, so I think they are not yet in nuclear territory

If anything, the sanctions are not enough. Bite the bullet, cut off all their energy exports.

Putin stooges and apologists like to bring up European winter and industry.

Whatever, Europe survived without Russian gas, there are substitutes even if they cost more

Bringing Russia to her knees is worth the price.

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