Interesting article overall, but the counter-point is not that strong IMO. I don’t think that those which are arguing that NATO over-extended and that they’re not innocent bystanders harbour the illusion that failing such expansion Russia would be a more democratic country.

The argument is that they wouldn’t be so aggressive because they wouldn’t feel threatened. There was a great argument that I read on HN explaining why Ukraine being NATO-friendly was causing massive problems for Russia - the gist of it was that they could project significant more power right at their doorstep.

In a recent interview Mearsheimer said that even if Ukraine wants to join NATO and NATO wants them to join, in reality Russia has a kind of veto power, no matter if that may seem immoral and unfair.