Comment by NoPie | Hacker News Reader

Comment by NoPie | Hacker News Reader

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Russia's GDP is something like 4% of the EU GDP. Everybody will get hurt from these sanctions but Russia will get hurt about 20 times more than the EU on average. Some EU countries will have bigger impact than others but they may get help from the EU, so it can be mitigated to some extent.

Russia will try to find a way around these sanctions generally but it will be less efficient. It is not that easy to substitute everything. Russians may not care about latest brand items but domestic substitutions will not be always of good quality or functionality. It wasn't during Soviet Union and depending how long these sanctions last, it will gradually impact Russia.

Some think that sanctions will be gradually weakened. I think it will be the opposite. The war is just started and as Ukraine will suffer more and more casualties, countries will make sanctions even stronger. It is surprising that the reaction was so severe in this short time. Usually it requires longer time to agree on things and it is expected that more sanctions will follow.

I am very sorry for all my Russians friends who now will have to suffer. It is not an easy situation to deal and no way out.

> Russia will try to find a way around these sanctions generally but it will be less efficient. It is not that easy to substitute everything. Russians may not care about latest brand items but domestic substitutions will not be always of good quality or functionality. It wasn't during Soviet Union and depending how long these sanctions last, it will gradually impact Russia.

You are forgetting China here. 70% of mobile phone market in India is dominated by Chinese phones which are honestly far more feature packed than the latest iPhone. Of course one does not have any idea about privacy/security aspects of it. Will definitely not be as secure as an iPhone. But for a regular user, does this actually matter? Especially in developing countries? More so in Russia?

When Soviet Union collapsed, China's GDP was slightly higher than India's GDP. It wasn't yet the manufacturing base and supply chain of the World. The West propped China up for 3 decades. Now Russia/Russians won't miss out much to be honest with you. There are alternatives for everything Western and then some.

> countries will make sanctions even stronger

In what way? The sanctions are already the strongest. There is nothing more "stronger" that can be done now. What can be "stronger" than cutting off financial telecommunications (through SWIFT)? Cutting off oil? That can be easily re-routed to India and China. India and China will love discounted Russian oil.

I think the West is overestimating the impact of Sanctions.

It is not the phones that have value today but apps. Also IT brain drain is already happening.

Yes, there will be an option to use cracked software etc. Not a good substitute when you cannot get proper support, localization etc.

Russian supremacists will view this even as a victory, no more degrading western influence. Most people, however, will have a different opinion even if not allowed to state it openly. They simply will not be happy about their limited choices.

The second part – Europe is seriously thinking about divesting from gas and oil and Germany may keep old nuclear plants running. There is space for more sanctions.

Sales of Chinese phones in Russia already dropped by half.

Also, generally speaking: Russia isn’t a partner for China; they just happened to have some common interests. China simply buy out Russia for peanuts, they are already buying Russian oil at price lower than it costs Russia to extract it. China won’t put their sales to the West at risk, Russian market isn’t worth it.

If sanctions are not effective enough, refugee visas to valuable Russian citizens are likely to be the cherry on top. Finish draining the country of its future economic productivity, leave the scraps for Putin. And frankly, those workers deserve better than what Russia offers. Pair that strategy with rapid transitions off of fossil fuels by the US and Europe.

Phones are by far the least concerning issue for Russians. Every major semiconductor foundries have stopped supplying Russia, setting them back decades technologically. Supply chains will be hit hard, especially since no one had the time and information to prepare and make some stocks for the transition.

The risk for financial collapse is definitely >0, especially since 2/3 of Russia reserve is frozen abroad and unavailable to keep the banks afloat in case of a crisis.

Oil and gas exports have slowed down a lot too, so few foreign currencies are coming in.

China will need to play it finely to stay out of trouble with the west (which is a way bigger market for them). If they do business, I see them keeping every chain of production in their country and selling only end products, which mean a massive brain drain and the loss of cutting-edge industries for Russia.

I don't have a lot of experience on this topic but to me, it looks like a hard blow on short, medium, and long term with a high risk of an economic collapse.

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