Putin’s Strategic Error | Hacker News Reader

Putin’s Strategic Error

theatlantic.com

40 pointsgamechangr14 comments

I don't think there's much appetite within the EU for rapid expansion; we're still grappling with Poland and Hungary's violations of the union's shared principles of liberal democracy. The EU needs significant reforms before it's likely to start admitting new members.

But certainly in the abstract, I agree there's a sense of drawing together, with the vast majority of Europe against Russian aggression. Finland probably should join NATO, as any benefits of neutrality must be dwindling under the EU's sanctions of Russia.

Another perspective: https://youtu.be/MDpTACez5cY

Archived: https://archive.ph/d7xZ4

Any HN contributors that have more info....will Finland now join NATO like the article suggests or is that over simplified?

One aspect is to look at the inverse decision and effect.

Will NATO allow Finland to join NATO knowing that it will anger Russia and possibly provoke violence? The recent decision by the USA to not proxy jets from Poland to Ukraine is telling.

America doesn't want to literally fly MiGs from Ramstein to Ukraine, which was the bizarre solution proposed by Poland. They're not against it in principle.

As the article says, attacking an EU member would already provoke a massive response. Finland joining NATO is a relatively small step, even if Russia cries about some perceived aggression.

They're not against precisely what in principle? Read this:

https://nitter.net/PentagonPresSec/status/150133645001252864...

Doesn't it sound as if flying from a Polish NATO base would be a different matter? Doesn't it sound as if in his mind, departing from Poland would raise serious concerns for just Poland rather than for the entire NATO alliance?

We should probably stop worrying what "Russia" or more precisely Putin thinks. He has attacked their neighbours, so why would other neighbouring states worry about retaliation if joining NATO or the EU? Russia is currently a retaliatory state, just like Nazi Germany. They will retaliate anyway when they get the chance. We should stop treating Russia with gloves. They need to be treated exactly like Iran or Soth Korea.

I don't think Finns have any strong desire to have nukes targeted at them, or to have an increased Russian military presence along the border. The current scheme of things is mostly quiet. Finland plays nicely with NATO and Russia has not raised any formal complaints about it. Russia does not have any real reason to attack Finland, and the Russian-speaking minority is not noisily complaining about discrimination. AFAICT, hearing Russian spoken here on the streets of Helsinki does not raise eyebrows.

I suspect that within a year, the 53% number will slide back into the thirties. Unless Ukraine drags on and atrocities multiply.

Eh, what's the point of jamming GPS if you're not anticipating inbound guided missiles?

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