Roskomsvoboda statement on foreign companies’ sanctions against Russians [pdf]
github.com
github.com
Instead comments seem to focus on how Russians deserve punishment, but how productive is this type of punishment? I would think it's an important goal to turn the Russians against Putin.
The west is not isolating them, just they are self isolating. All independent media had to shut down there.
Western services are also cutting them off. I get the sense that's helping Putin.
An example:
> Namecheap: Russia Service Termination
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30504812
Maybe a DNS service is not the best example, but I feel like it's not the only service that I've seen do this.
EDIT: Better example:
> Internet backbone provider shuts off service in Russia
https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/5/22962822/internet-backbone...
Even BBC has to restart using AM radio for its russian services (not done since the Cold War).
Stop 'victim playing' and blaming the west, when you should be blaming your leader for the massive censorship going on in Russia right now.
TF? I'm not Russian.
I put a better example.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-moscows-claims-of-bio...
Lumen and Cogent already stopped peering with Russian ISPs. It's not Russian government, and they are doing the dirty work for the Russian government.
This is not about punishment or providing services, this is about peering and basic connectivity at the backbone level. It can break the Internet as the common medium, and not just for Russia. This sets the precedent that undermines decades of development and can make the biggest contribution to peace in the history of humanity fall apart into different bubbles.
Very powerful message and on point, it's no wonder every dictator shuts the net down when things start to turn/burn internally.
This environment of elevated risk is ample reason for any international business to avoid business with Russian nationals, other Russian entities, and anything to do with Russia, generally, at this time. It is unfortunate that Russian citizens may see less of the outside world as a consequence of these high level sanctions and of this politically risky situation. It is not the responsibility of these operators to remedy that.
An example:
> Namecheap: Russia Service Termination
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30504812
EDIT: Better example:
> Internet backbone provider shuts off service in Russia
https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/5/22962822/internet-backbone...
While I generally agree that the West should not be shutting down the information pipes, in this environment the additional harm of such actions may be minimal.
But West, blocking Visa essentially made it impossible for average Russian IT guy to pay for VPS. And if The Internet would be cut off, the game is over, the entire country will be brain washed by Russian propaganda exclusively. I guess, it should be possible to use UnionPay to buy VPS in Turkey or something like that.
I, personally, don't believe that western propaganda is one bit better that Russian propaganda. It's the same half-truths, half-lies, just picked differently. But what I do believe is that every person must have access to all points of view, without any exclusions. And must be encouraged to learn all points of view for important subjects.
The things is, there is no way to buy a $5 VPS/VPN now in Russia "thanks" to Visa / Mastercard actions.
Let's not help them do their job, then, even a little bit. Some of the recent sanctions/pullouts are probably counterproductive, e.g.:
1. Visa/Mastercard cutting off service. - It seems like a big result of this has been to make it more difficult for Russians to flee the country. If you want to harm the Russian government, one way to do that is through a brain drain, so make that easy.
2. The Cogent disconnection. - If an authoritarian government wants to disconnect, then the correct response is to try to do the opposite.
3. etc. - e.g. the Namecheap thing. Maybe they should have enacted a content policy rather than just cutting off the whole country. Though their response seems forgivably human since they have so many people in Ukraine.
IMHO, cutoffs should only be done strategically or for reasonable tactical reasons (e.g. cybersecurity threats). In some cases if you want to Russia's actions, in some cases the best action is to leave, but in other's it's to stay (or carefully change policy).
I'm doubtful of that. I think an authoritarian government might benefit from a brain drain.
Even if a brain drain were desirable, there's no way the effectiveness of that outweighs the harm to the economy that the cutoff by Visa/Mastercard would have.
My understanding is that the cutoff only affects 1) foreign cards in Russia and 2) Russian cards outside of Russia, because domestic Russian credit card transactions are cleared with a different (domestic) system. So it mainly affects tourists and expats, and probably has minimal impact on the domestic economy.
Wouldn't that also affect online transfers that cross their border? For example, their international purchases and payment of services, and also their receipt of payments from international employers or clients.
Cutoff by Visa and Mastercard has zero impact on local economy. They do not handle local transactions for their branded cards. But indeed, they made life much more difficult for a hundred thousand Russians who are fleeing the country at the moment.
For the vast majority of the information on the internet, Visa/Mastercard is going to be irrelevant to Russians' ability to access alternative perspectives anyway
I have lived through the entire life of the Internet and seen only the exact opposite things happened that we all expected and hoped would happen with free and open access to information. Conspiracy theories thrived rather than got rebutted, political discourse worsened, it did not improve. The power of large corporations increased, power was not democratized.
Perhaps without Internet young people will be bored and when young men are idle they tend to turn to the kind of violent uprising Russia probably needs.
That seems way too improbable.
That's a terrible decision for every Russian who wants to have a chance to find different information's.
Russians have had all the ability to watch the videos of Ukraine destruction and to get all the other true information about the war. They wouldn't. All together with Putin they have for 20 years been resurrecting the myth of "Great Russia", which in its current form is pretty much nazism (or like Ukrainians and Baltic countries usually call it "russism" ['rashizm']- short for "Russian Fascism"). Even directly facing the truth Russians refuse to believe it and dismiss it as fakes, propaganda, etc. They like to think of themselves as a "Big Brother liberating the smaller one". That is kind of mental blindness which just can't be pierced by any normal way. They need pain to wake up back to reality.
There is only one way to deal with such a nuclear empire - like with USSR the Russians need to be pushed down to the level when they will lose any respect, fear of and obedience to their government while their government needs to be struck hard to lose economical and as result political power.
The purpose of the sanctions is to reduce support for Putin from the people he actually needs to support his regime (russian billionaires, the government, the army, etc), and to cripple its ability to support its army.
Historically, making the people hurt through sanction is the most effective way of getting rid of a dictator
.
> I would think it's an important goal to turn the Russians against Putin.
They're paying $150 for days-old individual McDonalds burgers on the web
This is how they get turned against Putin.
That's angry, polarized people giving into being cruel. It's understandable. I thought I was jaded, but the horrors coming out of Ukraine are breathtaking. But the Russian people deserve none of this, nor what is coming for them.
There are two sanctions/decoupling strategies: a fast strategy and a slow strategy.
The fast strategy aims to convince elites to change course. If Putin withdraws, he gets his economy back. That's unlikely here; the real targets are his generals. The slow strategy is about degrading capability. It's a worst-case fallback for when the fast strategy fails. Smaller economies power smaller war machines. Brain drain, industrial decay and material shortages make unmanageable threats less potent.
Drawn-out sanctions undermine the appeal of popular uprising. External pressure tends to bring people together, which in this case means tolerating eroding freedoms in exchange for security. And starving, broken people don't revolt. When we deploy long-term sanctions, we're putting a nation in international quarantine. Despite the terrific cost, to ourselves and the innocent people there. The image of decades-long sanctions forcing people into the streets against their own government is a fantasy based on the fast-strategy success of the South African example.
The sanctions aren't about punishing Russians, nor about getting Russians to reject Putin.
It's all just virtue signalling. It's literally irrelevant what impact it has, if any.
see https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501676859741904898 for details
maybe (maybe) putin reality distortion field can keep working, or maybe russian will start to wonder why everybody is leaving russia all of a sudden (including many russians).
I perfectly well understand (and share) the anger against Russia, and desire to use sanctions and withdrawal of companies/services as a tool to reduce the quality of life in Russia and through that (hopefully) affect the policies of the Russian state/change the government. One can argue whether they will be effective, but it is a tool that is used as an alternative to pure war, and so I'd argue it is better.
But in the same time, I certainly recommend for every company to think a little bit whether their withdrawal is going to make the regime life easier or harder. I would think that withdrawal of Cogent was counterproductive. Similarly I think the stopping of Mastercard/Visa (effective immediately) mostly hurt people who just recently left russia under the threat to their lives (like independent journalists).
All that said, it's hard to ask companies to make a careful analysis about the consequences of their actions on Russian regime as that's not their job. So for sure there will be unintended consequences like hurting some people who were fighting the regime, and consequences helping Russia. I just hope the companies will try to minimise those and think a little before following the current pressure to disassociate from Russia.
VPN helps too. A lot of people use it.
While Putin has money from oil and gas, he could sponsor war and destroy protests. Let's take away them, stop or reduce buying oil and gas. Regime becomes weak and Russian people could resist it.
What goes beyond the sanctions, like business withdrawals from Russia (Visa, MasterCard, Microsoft, McDonalds) is a business decision to mitigate a geopolitical risk. The management board does not want to be ”stained in blood” and is willing to give up on Russia than in any way be associated with Russian war propaganda. Furthermore it is likely that the current shareholders are going to lose the Russian business any case, due to nationalisation, credit defaults, oligarchs taking over, local mob bosses taking over, etc. Russia is a country run by thugs, the only law is Putin’s word and when thugs see an opportunity they will use it.
Sanctions of the kind we see now will, not only as an unfortunate side effect, for example
- disproportionately cause working age and educated people to leave the country causing brain drain and furthering the demographic crisis
- lowering the risk/reward threshold for ordinary people to protest the regime. People with somewhat comfortable lives might not risk prison to protest the war. People who can’t eat or who lost their life savings in a year might.
I agree that when consumer brands boycott Russia it’s likely mostly optics and fear of consumer boycott. Not much can be done about that. It just happens to align with and further the sanctions.
It’s important that Russians are given international news, however. Cutting communications seems counter productive.
All the world bullies are carefully watching and figuring out if they could afford their own might makes right exercise. A companie's action or inaction will be noted and taken into account.
I also worry that while the West seems to be in complete agreement that harsh punishment on Russia is fair, it may or may not be the case in the future that such punishment is reserved to those who "deserve" it.
If they have no access to free chat apps - they have no safe way to communicate.
It just can not help them to overthrow Putin.
I see the point in economic sanctions - people should be forced to go to the streets. Brutally forced, if needed. I agree that it's necessary.
But they still should have access to information (not only propaganda) and secure communication.
Without electricity, no internet, to a first approximation. So I tend to disagree because one mostly entails the other.
Censorship right now only works against the .ru websites and newspapers - they can't post anything and can’t even call it war. One of them is still calling it a war, though - Meduza.
Also, independent radio stations were closed.
This document is only about access to western newspapers, websites, and chats like Matrix, Viber, Signal.
Cutting the aggressor of from electricity and internet is of course the least thing you should do. Arms supply is ofc better, but hey, doing this will not hurt.
And hey, if a little bit of economic inconvenience is not "deserved" for a fucking invasion, how high would you like to have this bar? This is as high as it can be.
Decades of Russia shitting all over the internet, both as a state and egging its citizens and organized crime to do so privately, has finally come home to roost.
Cutting a country off from the Internet can be an extremely serious step and subject to great risk of being abused... while also being a reasonable response in the case of an unprovoked military invasion of a democracy and targeting of its civilian population.
There used to be Radio Svoboda to counter Soviet propaganda. Nowadays West need to be working hard to ensure there is internet in Russia and news and communications are available, so regular people cans see non-government news sources and dissidents can securely coordinate. I don't understand why it's so hard to comprehend.
But they have been - there has been an unprecedented amount of protests in Russian cities..
Russians have no reason to complain when they're cutting of Mariupol's water and food supply. There's already a case of a child dying from dehydration.
Nor is it immediately clear that this strategy is actually a wise one when you consider all other geopolitical variables in play. Setting the conditions for a Russo-Sino alliance in the Pacific Theater is something that should give everyone pause given CCP's increasing bellicosity regarding the Taiwan question. "They deserve it" is not really a guiding principle for policy grounded in anything other than whatever peculiar moral constraints elites set for themselves.
2.) although Russia does deserve punishment they shouldn’t be punished because sometime later someone who doesn’t deserve punished will be punished
By that logic how could any action have a penalty or punishment?
Let’s say that you had a magic button you could press that would mirror every act of violence done in Ukraine with one in Russia going forward. So the next time a Hospital blows up in Ukraine, a Hospital blows up somewhere in Russia. Perfect symmetry.
Would you press the button? Because if you would then sanctions of any kind are dramatically less drastic than that.
It's hard to take them seriously when they don't even condemn the war crimes of their own government.
Tremendous external pressure was applied on South Africa which affected its people. I was one of them. This created the impetus for internal change and resulted in, first a referendum to determine if South Africa would become a democracy- and then the actual transformation.
The world must continue to apply pressure on the whole of Russia. It sucks for the Russian people. Trust me, I get it.
- bomb hospitals - kill children - rape women - massacre civilians - destroy homes - bomb a holocaust memorial site - etc etc etc
Russia will not recover from this in any of our lifetimes. When the true scale of this terror inflicted upon Ukraine is known by the world, frankly, everyone will be shocked beyond belief.
Hello from Kyiv
Further, even if they are correct, to what extent is their response based on incorrect or insufficient information (which I strongly suspect)?
1807 polled in RU, 59% said they support the russian invasion
(A bit like run-up to the Iraq war?)
Original document (ru, en, fr): https://roskomsvoboda.org/uploads/documents/statement_of_ros...
Web version (ru): https://roskomsvoboda.org/post/zayavlenie-protiv-otklyucheni...
Oh and when attracted you can surrender or fight. If you fight you might loose, but if you don't, you lost. Hate is not only justified, it does absolutely help.
No country owes it to any other country to trade with them. Any country absolutely has the right to revoke its willingness to trade with other countries on a case by case basis. Any country or organization that sanctions Russia is doing the right thing, too; all decent people in the world should be using all non-violent means at the minimum to make war so costly for aggressors that war becomes near-impossible. If anything, Russia is not sanctioned enough currently.
Edit: Don't forget that there are > 2 million Ukrainian refugees currently who have been forced to flee their country. Those that continue to live in Ukraine are having their homes and infrastructure bombed or disconnected. The suffering of the Russian people due to these sanctions pales in comparison to the suffering that the Russian government/military is directly inflicting on Ukrainians. Those sanctions will be lifted as soon as Russia stops inflicting harm on Ukrainians.
Have you ever sanctioned anyone before in this manner? Israel? Syria? Iraq? The US? China? India?
I never said sanctioning couldn't be done. I'm just saying if your sanctions affect random citizens who are already powerless, and not the leaders of the country, then you're just being an asshole, and no, you aren't helping.
Sanctions are just one of the few tools in the toolbox that can be used to punish a country's leadership, besides going to war.
If that ISN'T your argument, is your argument then: "Sanctions will affect both the Russian government's ability to wage war AND the Russian people, and because the sanctions affect the Russian people, they are not justified" ? Could it ever be the case that sanctions could affect only a government's ability to wage war and never the people of a country? Are you then arguing that sanctions are never justified no matter the circumstances? How far are you willing to take this argument? Should a country be forced to trade and engage in business with a country that is currently invading them?
I really don't understand exactly what you're arguing here and I'd appreciate clarification
I kind of doubt that. I think it might bea while until these sanctions are taken down.
Keep things in perspective: No body wants to send the average internet user to la Hague. That's the place for Putin and those who fly the air raids. This is just making this average day a bit worse for the sake of stifling Russias ability to sustain this attack.
All of this will stop the moment the invasion stops. Russian Joes wants it to stop? Fine, go complain at those who choose to continue the war. There is a direct cause-and-effect relation there.
But two things in response to this:
- While hard to know with certainty, there is strong evidence a plurality of Russians support the war. Caveat given what they are swayed by Putins' gov media lies.
I read 58% in this source and I can't find it but I think Navalny org said 50%. [1]
Furthermore yes while it seems young conscripts were sent into Ukraine at this point it would be very clear to those on the ground what they are doing. I get they are probably making calculations about punishment or even death for desertion. But they aren't ignorant at this point but active participants.
Russian civilians aren't close to wholly innocent.
- I'm afraid that targeted sanctions have not and will not work.
I'm not sure if punishing the population economically will cause regime change. I hope it will. They have to fight if they want it - yes I understand the deadly costs of that but it's a choice millions of people are making in Ukraine and have throughout history. One reason there is more sympathy than say Afghanistan.
Even if lowering life quality in Russia doesn't cause change, this is a response to obscene attacks; i think the sanctions are actually less than proportional/reciprocal. proportional would be 'kinetic' military but that's obviously super dangerous.
Should always remember humanitarian aid through.
Sadly this high road is being bombed in Ukraine right now (maternity ward is just another stressed expletive filled morning for me)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-publi...
Who isn't afraid of a corrupt super-oligarch that seems to have the authority to kill tens of thousands at a whim with his nation-state army and doesn't answer to nobody?
Nevermind the nuclear button!
I think being a Russophobe is the only rational stance.
You gonna start chasing them with pitchforks in your own country?
If you want to keep filling up your car with gas, maybe stop setting people's barns on fire all the time.
Not when the consequence of that is being beaten up, tortured, and then put in prison for up to 15 years (as per the recent law changes). Oh, and getting your relatives punished as well, despite them having nothing to do with it. Here is a take on it from Human Rights Watch[0]. Just the knowledge of such consequences makes a person just shut down, carry on, and not worry much about anything except your own and your family's survival.
Side-tangent: sometimes I really do wonder what kind of cushy and sheltered lives some users on HN live, where they instantly jump to "if people don't protest in millions, it means they support Putin". I think I am pretty comfortable now, but I still very clearly remember what it was like living in Russia (before I escaped to the US over a decade ago), so these types of replies grind me the wrong type of way.
And yes, there are plenty of people who actually support Putin in Russia, and we need them on our side. Some support him out of ignorance, some for other reasons. But, I think, it is a bit less surprising if you phrase it as "Plenty of Russian people supported the special operation for liberating people in Ukraine". It is a blatant lie, but more and more people in Russia are opening their eyes to this being total bs. Sanctions help, outside news drumming up the reporting of the conflict help.
On their own, those things don't seem that wild, but if you couple total brainwashing with extremely severe and brutal consequence for even questioning the narrative, you get an extremely repressed population that will be heavily discouraged (even within their own heads) from protesting.
0. https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/03/09/russia-brutal-arrests-an...
This narrative that Putin is somehow solely waging a war with the entire population in opposition is an absolute meme. If the Russian people were sick of him they'd depose him, elections or no elections, Russians have done it to their leaders plenty of times.
In any country as vast and populous like Russia leaders always depend on the consent of the governed autocratic or not. I know it doesn't fit into this comical worldview where every Russian is secretly an American yearning to breathe free, oppressed by Putin.
I hope putin will be the second case.
Firstly can't ignore the rise of putin and him gaining more power & popularity after similar attacks. He at least used to be broadly popular, even though he messes with the actual elections.
And a LOT of Russians support the war.
Here is a poll I put in another comment puts at 58% support. I read another I think from Navalny said 50% but I can't find it so grain of salt.
complicated given they only see lies on TV.
But at this point the conscript soldiers know what they are doing. A lot of Russians ARE connected to the West and know the truth.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-publi...
Right now Putin spend billion dollars from oil and gas to sponsor war and inner forces which harshly destroy any protests.
The only effective sanctions *against* Putin – is to cut down buying gas and oil. But Europe and other countries resist to do so.
Yeah, it may sounds promising to someone that cutting Russian off the Internet will help protests, but it's not. Regime is still incredibly rich and could sponsor any aggressive activity.
First thing that West must do – to make Putin's poor. And then Russians could resist against him. Right now he has multi billions army and law against unarmed citizens.
Yet that did not stop the war, even after months of warnings and pleas from the entire world. People of Russia did not try to stop Putin from the inside, too few went to the streets to prevent the war from starting. They did not do enough to protest against the illegal annexation of Crimea and the creation of the 'republics' in 2014.
Most services were up until the day the war started, people could share information freely, they could use the word 'war' and 'peace' without risk of being arrested. Yet that did not help.
In fact, the power in Russia is known to exploit the unlimited access to world Internet to spread out misinformation, get involved in hacking political campaigns in other countries, kremlin bots, ransomware gangs, etc.
Due to this war, Russians are no longer considered trustworthy partners in politics, business, sports, science, arts, etc, so companies choose not to be associated with Russia because that hurts their business in other countries around the world.
I mean, to the world Putin is Hitler now. Would you agree to Hitler keeping all his international privileges while he was invading other countries ?
Businesses have to do what they have to do. Sadly that means that those 22% percent of Russians who oppose the war will have to endure the full impact of the world's emotional reaction to what the majority of Russians allowed to happen (and currently support).
It was not. Roskomsvoboda was created to track blocking lists in 2012.
It's been 10 years since internet started to be blocked in Russia.
You are pecking on a branch, but the argument you reply to speaks about the forest.
It will lead them to the streets. And at this moment they'll look for a leader, for the truth, for the information and secure communications (free of censorship).
This statement is not about lifting the economic sanctions, it's only about Internet access.
Maybe the massive sanctions are a pretext to this: drop the sanctions and let goods and services flood back in. Only the goods and services will be stuffed full of war images and demoralizing content.
What is Roskomsvoboba?
I think that cutting off internet in Russia punishes Russia, but doesn't do anything towards stopping the war. On the contrary, eliminating internet will further cut off Russians from the truth, resulting in further brainwashing of Russian population, more support for Putin, and ultimately more Ukrainian deaths.
I think the "we could use it to counter propaganda" angle is weak. If Russia thought that might work, they would have already cut it off.
More to the point, Russia does think that might work, and has been selectively cutting off the parts that it sees as enabling that. What's left is what the Russian government sees as useful for themselves.
It would be more convenient to have YouTube turn itself off, since in that case those millions of Russians would be pissed off at YouTube & USA (instead of being pissed at the Russian government)
Cutting off internet will not stop the war. In your opinion, what is the most realistic, fast way to stop Russian war on Ukraine ?
How about you - Roskomsvoboda focus your energy on stopping the war, so Ukrainians can also enjoy the benefits of new technologies?
You can't take them seriously when they parrot the Kremlin's language. They only use "so-called" to avoid calling it what it is: a war of conquest. Putin explicitly said he wants Crimea and Donbas.
This statement should really target Russia for the same thing, so yeah it’s troll bait. It’s propaganda to instigate “ooh the poor Russian victims of their own indifference.” discourse.
We can see in this thread it worked.
Circle around logical propositions all you want, theorizing has little value when the behavior is concrete.
This "Statement" looks a lot like a false flag.
Unfortunately, the latter is but a small fraction of the population. The vast majority of Russians are remaining silent. The chance that these blocks will prevent any of that group from learning about the war when they still have not been reached at this point is slim. Blocking of accounts doesn't usually prevent you from reading the news, anyway.
Russian media is downplaying the event. Making peoples' lives inconvenient has the chance of making them take notice, which is a first step.